kt Rolster vs HANJIN BRION: Ezreal Risk in LCK

TL;DR: In LCK Game 3, kt Rolster hold a 52% draft-model edge over HANJIN BRION at 48%, but Teddy’s Ezreal is the headline risk: the pick owns a 43% LCK WR over 121G and faces Sivir’s 38% global matchup WR over 169G. HANJIN BRION need poke and early picks to make that gamble pay off.

Compositions: kt Rolster vs HANJIN BRION

HANJIN BRION have committed to Ezreal into Sivir despite Teddy’s weak regional record, signaling a deliberate poke-and-skirmish route rather than a safe scaling lane. Jayce, LeBlanc, Ezreal and Elise must create pressure before Sivir’s waveclear and kt Rolster’s five-man engage stabilize the map.

kt Rolster have a clearer teamfight shell: PerfecT’s Yorick supplies split-push pressure, Cuzz’s Wukong and Effort’s Bard provide engage and roam angles, while Bdd’s Zoe creates pick threat around objectives. Jiwoo’s Sivir is the scaling carry; kt want controlled early lanes, then faster rotations and front-to-back fights.

HANJIN BRION need Casting’s Jayce poke, Roamer’s LeBlanc flank access, GIDEON’s Xin Zhao skirmishing, and Namgung’s Elise ganks to snowball before Yorick becomes a side-lane problem. Their composition can punish immobile targets, but it is less forgiving in extended 5v5s.

Key Picks and Stats

Top lane favors kt Rolster statistically. Yorick has a 46.5% global WR over 361G but a 51.2% LCK WR over 43G; PerfecT is 50.0% over 6G with a 2.0 KDA. Against Jayce, Yorick reaches 52.8% globally over 161G and 57.7% in LCK over 26G. Casting’s Jayce is only 42.9% in LCK over 91G, while Casting is 41.7% over 12G with a 2.7 KDA.

The jungle is volatile. Cuzz’s Wukong holds a 43.0% global WR over 873G, a 47.6% LCK WR over 63G, and just 12.5% over 8G for Cuzz. GIDEON’s Xin Zhao is 53.8% over 13G with a 6.0 KDA, giving HANJIN BRION a real early-game lever despite Xin Zhao’s 46.9% LCK WR over 128G.

Bdd’s Zoe is the standout comfort pick: 72.7% in LCK over 11G and 100.0% over 4G for Bdd with a 10.7 KDA. Jiwoo’s Sivir adds a 61.2% LCK WR over 49G, while Sivir owns a 70.0% LCK matchup WR over 10G against Ezreal. Teddy’s Ezreal is 43.0% in LCK over 121G and 42.9% over 14G for Teddy.

Draft Edge

kt Rolster get the draft edge through their better scaling, stronger Sivir-versus-Ezreal lane data, and Bdd’s exceptional Zoe history. Effort’s Bard is the danger point: his Bard-versus-Elise record is 25.0% in LCK over 4G, while Namgung’s Elise is 75.0% over 4G against Bard.

Last night’s expected B1 picks, Jarvan IV for kt Rolster and Orianna for HANJIN BRION, were not confirmed by the finished compositions. No ban list was supplied, so the projected Orianna, Varus, Bard, Rumble, Karma and Vi bans cannot be verified. The actual Ezreal choice is far more aggressive than the forecasted response structure.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket prices kt Rolster at 72% and HANJIN BRION at 28% for Game 3; the Series Now market is also 72% to 28%. The series price moved from 74% to 72% for kt Rolster versus 26% to 28% before the match, a -2.0 percentage points move toward HANJIN BRION.

Because this is deciding Game 3 and the Game and Series figures are within 2 percentage points, Polymarket is effectively reusing the series moneyline rather than offering a distinct per-game view. The market still strongly backs kt Rolster because Sivir, Zoe and Yorick offer more reliable scaling, although HANJIN BRION’s Elise and Xin Zhao early-game routes explain the small pre-match move.

Prediction

The model calls kt Rolster 52% to HANJIN BRION 48%; the draft supports a modest adjustment to kt Rolster 54% — HANJIN BRION 46%. kt won Game 1 24-11 in 39:20, but HANJIN BRION answered in Game 2 with a 6-12 kill result in 30:40, so recent momentum and Cuzz’s 12.5% Wukong record keep this close.

FAQ

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*