HANJIN BRION vs kt Rolster: Gnar Draft Edge in LCK

TL;DR: In LCK Game 4, HANJIN BRION hold a 54% draft-model edge over kt Rolster at 46%, but kt Rolster have sent PerfecT’s Ambessa into Casting’s Gnar. Ambessa has only a 38% global WR over 161G against Gnar, so kt Rolster need Cuzz’s Lee Sin to create an early snowball before HANJIN BRION’s side lanes take over.

Compositions: HANJIN BRION vs kt Rolster

HANJIN BRION drafted a volatile engage-and-pick composition. Casting’s Gnar gives the teamfight engage, GIDEON’s Pantheon can gank or roam with Roamer’s Locke, while Teddy’s Jhin supplies long-range pick threat. Namgung’s Camille is the unusual support flex: she can engage onto Jiwoo’s Ashe or split the fight, but the composition needs clean target access rather than extended front-to-back scaling.

kt Rolster answer with a more conventional teamfight shell. PerfecT’s Ambessa wants flank angles, Cuzz’s Lee Sin must manufacture tempo, Bdd’s Lissandra offers reliable engage, and Jiwoo’s Ashe plus Effort’s Seraphine create poke, pick, and scaling. Their best mid-game sequence is Ashe arrow into Lissandra or Lee Sin engage, followed by Seraphine’s layered crowd control.

Key Picks and Stats

The top lane is the draft’s pressure point. Casting has a 55.4% global WR over 1072G and a 58.2% LCK WR over 98G on Gnar, including a 57.1% LCK WR over 7G and 5.5 KDA personally. Against Ambessa, Gnar holds a 61.5% global WR over 161G and a 73.3% LCK WR over 15G. PerfecT’s Ambessa has a 39.1% LCK WR over 92G, a 26.7% LCK WR over 15G versus Gnar, and a 33.3% LCK WR over 3G.

Jungle is kt Rolster’s counterweight. Cuzz’s Lee Sin owns a 55.1% global WR over 686G and a 60.0% LCK WR over 80G, while Lee Sin has a 60.0% LCK WR over 15G into Pantheon. Yet Cuzz is 0.0% over 3G on Lee Sin. GIDEON’s Pantheon is only 41.7% over 12G in LCK, despite a 5.5 KDA.

Bot lane favors kt Rolster statistically. Jiwoo’s Ashe has a 56.6% global WR over 730G, a 57.1% LCK WR over 63G, and an 83.3% LCK WR over 6G into Jhin. Teddy is 37.5% over 8G on Jhin and 16.7% over 6G against Ashe. Effort’s Seraphine adds a 70.0% LCK WR over 10G and 6.1 KDA, though Namgung’s Camille has a 76.2% global WR over 21G into Seraphine.

Draft Edge

Neither anticipated B1 appeared: HANJIN BRION did not take Orianna and kt Rolster did not take Jarvan IV. The available draft record does not identify the completed bans, so the forecasted Orianna, Varus, Bard, Rumble, Karma, and Vi bans cannot be confirmed. The Ambessa choice is the sharpest departure from last night’s forecast because it walks directly into Gnar’s documented counter lane.

HANJIN BRION have the cleaner top-side win condition: survive Ashe pressure, use Pantheon and Locke to threaten dives, then let Gnar and Camille attack flanks. kt Rolster win if Lee Sin breaks open the map before Gnar reaches decisive Mega Gnar fights.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket prices Game 4 at HANJIN BRION 34% and kt Rolster 66%, a major rejection of the model’s HANJIN BRION lean. The Series Now market instead gives HANJIN BRION 60% and kt Rolster 40%; HANJIN BRION rose from 26% pre-match by 15.0 percentage points.

That split says traders believe HANJIN BRION are favored to close the series overall, but kt Rolster are much more likely to win this specific map. Ashe, Seraphine, Lissandra, and Lee Sin explain that respect for kt Rolster’s immediate engage and pick tools, while the market may be discounting Ambessa’s hostile Gnar lane.

Prediction

The model starts at HANJIN BRION 54% vs kt Rolster 46%. I trim HANJIN BRION to HANJIN BRION 52% vs kt Rolster 48% because Jiwoo’s Ashe matchup, Cuzz’s champion baseline, and the 66% Game 4 market all matter. Still, HANJIN BRION won Games 2 and 3, giving them momentum after kt Rolster’s 24-11 Game 1 win.

FAQ

A: Yes, but Cuzz must intervene early: Gnar’s 73.3% LCK WR over 15G versus Ambessa is a severe lane warning, while Lee Sin has a 60.0% LCK WR over 15G into Pantheon.

A: Jiwoo’s Ashe has an 83.3% LCK WR over 6G against Jhin, and Effort’s Seraphine carries a 70.0% LCK WR over 10G, giving kt Rolster strong bot-side setup.

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*