Solary’s Vayne-Draven Gamble: EMEA Masters Game 2 Draft

TL;DR: Solary face Anubis Gaming in EMEA Masters Game 2 with a 58%–42% edge in the draft model. The sharpest draft fact is Kryze’s Vayne: he has a 100% WR over 3 EMEA Masters games on the champion, but must face maged’s Malphite, a direct answer with 60% global WR against Vayne.

Compositions: Solary vs Anubis Gaming

Solary’s blue-side draft pairs Kryze’s Vayne with Zicssi’s Vi and Jool’s Ahri to create pick threat and skirmish pressure. Vi’s point-and-click engage gives Ahri a reliable setup, while Pyke can roam to extend early advantages. Aetinoth’s Draven adds lane pressure and snowball potential, but the composition needs to convert its early tempo: Vayne offers late-game scaling, yet the team has no conventional frontline beyond Vi.

Anubis Gaming’s red-side lineup is more clearly built for teamfights. maged’s Malphite and Theocacs’ Xin Zhao can engage, with Giyuu’s Ambessa adding follow-up disruption. Shy Carry’s Ashe supplies poke and catch, while B Butcher’s Seraphine adds sustain and teamfight tools. Anubis can use Ashe’s range and Seraphine’s utility to stabilize the early game, then contest objectives with layered engage. Solary want to isolate targets before that formation comes together; Anubis want to force grouped fights.

Key Picks and Stats

Kryze’s Vayne is a risky top-lane pick into Malphite. His champion record is 55.9% global WR over 236G and 66.7% EMEA Masters WR over 12G; with Vayne in the tournament, he is 100% over 3G with a 4.0 KDA. The matchup sample is tiny, but maged has 60.0% global WR over 5G against Vayne, and his Malphite carries 50.0% EMEA Masters WR over 8G. Malphite’s engage can punish Vayne if she lacks space.

In the jungle, Zicssi’s Vi has 53.1% global WR over 1295G and 47.3% EMEA Masters WR over 91G. His tournament Vi record is 71.4% over 7G with a 3.9 KDA. Theocacs’ Xin Zhao sits at 48.6% global WR over 1501G and 54.8% EMEA Masters WR over 115G, with 80.0% over 5G and a 5.7 KDA on the champion in the tournament. He also has 63.2% EMEA Masters WR over 19G against Vi, giving Anubis a meaningful matchup signal.

Jool’s Ahri combines 54.1% global WR over 947G with 54.4% EMEA Masters WR over 103G; his tournament record is 83.3% over 6G with a 5.6 KDA. Giyuu’s Ambessa has 48.9% global WR over 1375G and 50.0% EMEA Masters WR over 86G. There is no meaningful head-to-head sample between these mid picks.

Bot lane is a high-variance contest: Aetinoth’s Draven has 58.3% global WR over 36G, while Shy Carry’s Ashe has 55.3% global WR over 919G and 56.0% EMEA Masters WR over 91G. Their global matchup records are each 50.0%, based on just 2G. Piero’s Pyke has 52.7% global WR over 165G; B Butcher’s Seraphine has 56.1% EMEA Masters WR over 98G and 51.5% global WR over 33G against Pyke.

Draft Edge

Solary have the sharper pick-and-snowball route through Vi, Ahri, Draven, and Pyke, while Jool’s and Kryze’s tournament champion records offer real upside. But Malphite challenges Vayne’s room to scale, and Anubis have the more straightforward five-on-five engage. Ashe–Seraphine is a stable, established pairing, with a model duo synergy of 52.5% across about 222 games. Solary’s model edge is modest: 58% to 42%, not a guarantee that their riskier composition wins.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket prices Solary at 74% for Game 2 and 94% for the series now, against Anubis Gaming at 26% and 6%, respectively. No series pre-match figure is provided, so the size or direction of any series-market movement cannot be established from these numbers. The Game market is 20 percentage points less optimistic about Solary than the series market. That gap fits the draft: Solary are favored to win the series, but Anubis’ Malphite-led engage gives them a credible route to take this map.

Prediction

The draft model’s 58% Solary to 42% Anubis Gaming call is reasonable, though the market is more confident in Solary for this particular game at 74%. Solary’s form signal is 0.900, compared with Anubis Gaming’s 0.800, and Solary’s season win rate signal is 0.714 versus 0.633. Anubis’ engage and Theocacs’ strong tournament Xin Zhao record keep the matchup volatile; Solary need to turn their early pick pressure into a lead before grouped fights favor Anubis.

FAQ

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*