Dplus Kia vs Bilibili Gaming: Milio’s Worlds Draft Gamble

TL;DR: In Worlds Game 3, the draft model gives Dplus Kia 48% and Bilibili Gaming 52%. Bilibili Gaming’s Milio has a 42% Worlds WR in 12G against Thresh’s 100% in 5G, putting ON’s protection and disengage to the test against Career’s pick potential.

Bilibili Gaming is betting on Milio to keep Viper’s Lucian safe and blunt Career’s hooks, but the matchup record makes that a calculated risk: Milio is 42% in 12G at Worlds, while Thresh is 100% in 5G. ON needs to deny Dplus Kia clean engage windows; if Lucid and Career force fights before Milio can peel, Bilibili’s backline could be exposed.

Compositions: Dplus Kia vs Bilibili Gaming

Dplus Kia pairs Olaf and Pantheon’s forward pressure with Viktor’s zone control and the Aphelios–Thresh lane. Early, Lucid’s Pantheon can roam to support Siwoo’s Olaf or create numbers advantages around mid. In mid game, Dplus Kia wants decisive engage and skirmishes; Viktor’s scaling and Aphelios’s teamfight damage give the composition a strong late-game fallback. Thresh adds pick potential, though his hooks must find a target before Milio can respond.

Bilibili Gaming has a split-push threat in Bin’s Jax and a flexible fight starter in Xun’s Trundle, while Knight’s Ahri supplies pick and roam potential. Lucian–Milio can pressure lane and poke, then rely on Milio’s protection in fights. Bilibili’s path is to use Ahri and Trundle to control early skirmishes, let Jax draw attention on a side lane, and avoid allowing Dplus Kia’s scaling carries to dictate a front-to-back fight.

The pre-draft call expected Jarvan IV for Dplus Kia’s B1 and Vi for Bilibili Gaming’s B1, but neither appears in the final draft: Dplus Kia instead has Pantheon, while Bilibili Gaming chose Trundle. The suggested bans—Nocturne, Orianna and Ezreal for Dplus Kia, and Orianna, Jarvan IV and Viktor for Bilibili Gaming—cannot be confirmed from the supplied draft information. Milio is the clearest departure from the forecast’s emphasis on stronger win-rate options.

Key Picks and Stats

Top lane leans Dplus Kia: Siwoo’s Olaf has a 52.7% global WR and 64.3% Worlds WR, including 100.0% in 1G. Bin’s Jax is at 47.7% globally and 33.3% at Worlds; into Olaf, Bin has 42.1% globally and 25.0% in 4G at Worlds, while Siwoo’s Olaf posts 57.9% globally and 75.0% in 4G against Jax.

In jungle, Lucid’s Pantheon has a 45.3% global WR and 46.2% at Worlds; his global matchup against Trundle is 55.6%. Xun’s Trundle records a 52.4% global WR and 55.6% at Worlds, but has a 44.4% global WR against Pantheon. Mid is close on champion results: ShowMaker’s Viktor is 50.2% globally and 50.0% at Worlds, while Knight’s Ahri is 54.0% globally and 75.0% in 4G at Worlds. Viktor has a 62.7% global WR against Ahri; Ahri’s corresponding global figure is 37.3%.

Bot lane offers Dplus Kia a favorable historical matchup: Smash’s Aphelios has a 50.3% global WR and 100.0% at Worlds in 1G, while Viper’s Lucian is at 48.8% globally and 46.7% at Worlds. Aphelios has 42.9% globally against Lucian, but Lucian’s figure against Aphelios is 57.1%. Career’s Thresh has a 50.0% global WR and is 0.0% in 5G against Milio; ON’s Milio is 48.2% globally and 41.7% at Worlds, despite his 100.0% in 5G against Thresh.

Draft Edge

Dplus Kia has the cleaner matchup indicators in top and mid, plus a teamfight composition that scales well. Bilibili Gaming has stronger season results and the more reliable split-push route through Bin, but its Milio–Lucian pairing must survive Dplus Kia’s engage and the unfavorable Aphelios-versus-Lucian historical matchup. Bilibili’s best chance is to get ahead through Ahri roams and side-lane pressure before Viktor and Aphelios take over fights.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket, a real-money prediction market, puts Game 3 at Dplus Kia 46% and Bilibili Gaming 54%; the Series market now stands at Dplus Kia 10% and Bilibili Gaming 90%. Before the match, the Series market was Dplus Kia 42% and Bilibili Gaming 58%, a 31.0 percentage-point swing against Dplus Kia. The Game market is much more optimistic about Dplus Kia than the Series market, reflecting the possibility of a single-map draft edge despite the broader series deficit.

Bilibili Gaming’s two wins—10-24 in 33:30 and 10-13 in 32:20—help explain the sharp series repricing. The market’s Game 3 lean toward Bilibili Gaming also fits its 54% model-side matchup outlook, though Dplus Kia’s Olaf–Viktor–Aphelios core offers a credible route to reverse the momentum.

Prediction

The model gives Dplus Kia 48% and Bilibili Gaming 52%, a narrow edge to Bilibili Gaming. I would keep that slight lean: Bilibili Gaming’s 0.687 season WR and 0.624 Elo signal outweigh Dplus Kia’s stronger lane matchups, but the 2-0 series score and 90% Series market price leave little room for a comeback. Dplus Kia’s best chance is to turn its top- and mid-lane advantages into early objectives.

FAQ

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*