Dplus Kia vs Bilibili Gaming: Ezreal’s Worlds Test

TL;DR: In Worlds Game 2, the model gives Dplus Kia 47% and Bilibili Gaming 53%. Bilibili’s standout draft question is Viper’s Ezreal: the champion has a 42% Worlds win rate over 24 games, but Viper has played it only twice at Worlds, so the pick’s success hinges on his execution and the team’s ability to control fights.

Bilibili Gaming has committed to Ezreal despite his 42% Worlds win rate across 24 games, while Viper has just 2 Worlds games on the champion. The pick offers safe poke and range, but Bilibili must use Orianna and Leona to create openings rather than assume Ezreal will carry fights alone.

Compositions: Dplus Kia vs Bilibili Gaming

Dplus Kia’s Kennen-Jarvan IV engage gives Siwoo and Lucid a direct way to start fights; Lulu can protect Yunara while Ryze adds side-lane pressure and follow-up damage. Early on, Lucid can look for lanes to gank, then the team wants controlled mid-game engages and a scaling path for Yunara. In late fights, Kennen’s flank and Jarvan’s Cataclysm need to create space for Smash.

Bilibili Gaming has more tools for poke and skirmishing. Ezreal can soften targets before Knight’s Orianna and ON’s Leona commit, with Bin’s Gnar adding another engage threat. Bilibili wants to contest vision and objectives, then combine Gnar’s transformation with Orianna’s Shockwave. Dplus Kia can punish a slow setup, but Bilibili’s range makes it costly to approach without an engage plan.

Key Picks and Stats

In top, Siwoo’s Kennen has a 50.0% global WR over 132G this season and a 100.0% Worlds WR over 2G; Bin’s Gnar is at 54.3% over 1269G globally and 70.0% over 10G at Worlds. Kennen’s global record against Gnar is 62.1% over 29G, favoring Siwoo, although Bin is 100.0% on Gnar in 2 Worlds games with a 3.6 KDA.

Lucid’s Jarvan IV is 50.5% over 1720G globally, 59.1% over 22G at Worlds, and 100.0% over 2 Worlds games with a 5.0 KDA. Xun’s Lee Sin stands at 54.8% over 991G and 52.0% over 25 Worlds games; his global Lee Sin record against Jarvan IV is 56.8% over 199G, rising to 75.0% over 4 Worlds games. That matchup history counters Lucid’s strong tournament form.

Mid favors Knight’s current tournament results: Orianna has a 51.0% global WR over 1212G and a 70.0% Worlds WR over 20G, while ShowMaker’s Ryze is at 49.8% over 1742G and 42.9% over 7 Worlds games. Knight is 100.0% on Orianna in 4 Worlds games with a 20.7 KDA. Bot is less settled: Smash’s Yunara is 50.7% over 1409G globally and 46.7% over 15 Worlds games; Viper’s Ezreal is 50.2% over 1732G and 41.7% over 24 Worlds games, despite a 27.0 KDA in his 2 Worlds games on the pick. Ezreal’s global matchup WR against Yunara is 56.4% over 156G. In support, Career’s Lulu is 48.1% over 1155G and 50.0% over 20 Worlds games; ON’s Leona is 51.8% over 564G and 60.0% over 5 Worlds games.

Draft Edge

Bilibili has the broader statistical edge in champion records, duo synergy and season WR, but Dplus Kia’s Kennen into Gnar and Lucid’s Worlds Jarvan results create meaningful counterplay. The main draft surprise is Ezreal: the pre-draft plan identified him as a ban candidate, yet Bilibili picked him. The predicted Jarvan IV B1 for Dplus Kia was not confirmed: the current draft includes Jarvan, but no pick-order data establishes that it was B1. The suggested bans cannot be verified from the provided draft.

Dplus Kia’s route is to land a decisive Kennen-Jarvan engage and keep Yunara alive. Bilibili’s is to use Ezreal poke, Knight’s Orianna form and Leona’s initiation to control objective fights before Dplus Kia can flank.

Polymarket Market

The Game 2 market has Dplus Kia at 46% and Bilibili Gaming at 54%; the Series market now is 28% to 72%. Before the match, the Series market was approximately 42% to 58%, a 14.0-percentage-point move away from Dplus Kia and toward Bilibili Gaming.

The market is therefore more optimistic about Bilibili in this specific game than the model is, while its 72% Series price reflects a much stronger overall expectation than the Game 2 price. Bilibili’s Game 1 win (10-24 kills, 33:30) helps explain the series shift. Its Orianna-Leona engage and the team’s season record support that confidence, though Viper’s 41.7% Worlds Ezreal WR is a clear draft risk.

Prediction

The model’s Dplus Kia 47%–Bilibili Gaming 53% call is close, and the draft gives both teams a credible win condition. I would keep Bilibili narrowly ahead, with Knight’s 70.0% Worlds Orianna WR and Bilibili’s Game 1 momentum outweighing Dplus Kia’s strong Jarvan results. The market’s sharp series adjustment is a warning that the first game has changed expectations, not proof that Game 2 is decided.

FAQ

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*