Deep Cross Braum Risk Defines LCP Game 3 vs Ground Zero

TL;DR: Deep Cross Gaming battles Ground Zero Gaming in LCP Game 3 after splitting the first two matches. The draft model gives Deep Cross Gaming 59% to win while Polymarket prices them at 64%. The defining feature remains Deep Cross Gaming's Braum selection for ShiauC despite weak historical data.

Deep Cross Gaming opted for Braum on the support role in a move that defies conventional expectations against Ground Zero Gaming's Nautilus. ShiauC brings a 42% global win rate on the champion across 165 games and has struggled in prior LCP encounters. This pick likely seeks to provide frontline engage and peel for the Corki and Orianna damage dealers in prolonged fights.

Compositions: Deep Cross Gaming vs Ground Zero Gaming

Deep Cross Gaming fields a composition centered on teamfight control with Gnar, Wukong, Orianna, Corki and Braum. The group looks to skirmish early and scale into strong mid game engages around Orianna ball plays. Ground Zero Gaming counters with Renekton, Xin Zhao, Taliyah, Xerath and Nautilus focused on split push pressure and poke from range. Deep Cross wants to close out fights quickly once Braum lands an engage while Ground Zero aims to punish overextensions with Nautilus hooks and Xerath long range damage.

Key Picks and Stats

Flauren's Gnar posts a 55.4% global win rate over 856 games this season and 62.5% versus Renekton in LCP over 8 games. Pop9's Wukong shows 34.8% win rate in LCP over 46 games this season. HongSuo's Orianna carries 42.5% win rate in LCP over 40 games yet holds 71.4% versus Taliyah globally. Feng's Corki reaches 55.6% win rate in LCP over 9 games. ShiauC's Braum sits at 37.5% in LCP over 8 games and 0% versus Nautilus in 4 LCP games.

On the red side 1Jiang's Renekton delivers 38.1% win rate in LCP over 42 games and 37.5% versus Gnar in LCP. Husha's Xin Zhao records 49% win rate in LCP over 51 games. Uniboy's Taliyah holds 46.7% in LCP over 30 games. Betty's Xerath shows 55.6% globally over 18 games. Kaiwing's Nautilus achieves 61.4% in LCP over 44 games and 100% versus Braum in 4 LCP games.

Draft Edge

Deep Cross Gaming holds the draft edge through superior champion pool data and blue side tempo despite the Braum question mark. The Gnar and Orianna picks create strong mid game synergy while Corki provides late scaling. Ground Zero Gaming gains counter value with Nautilus into Braum yet trails in overall model signals including 0.678 elo versus 0.322. The pre-draft forecast expected Rumble or Ryze opens and Nocturne bans but Orianna slipped through and Braum emerged as the clear deviation.

Polymarket Market

The Game 3 and Series markets both sit at 64% for Deep Cross Gaming and 36% for Ground Zero Gaming. This indicates the deciding game in the best of three with no separate per-game market created. The series odds have shifted from 76% pre-match to 64% now, a 12 percentage point move against Deep Cross Gaming. The market still prices Deep Cross higher than the draft model because blue side advantage and series momentum after winning Game 2 outweigh the Braum variance.

Prediction

The draft model predicts Deep Cross Gaming at 59% and Ground Zero Gaming at 41%. Team form favors Deep Cross Gaming after the Game 2 victory while mental state in a 1-1 series could swing execution on the risky Braum pick. Blue side draft priority adds a small lift toward 61% for Deep Cross Gaming.

FAQ

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*