Nongshim Red Force Alistar Pick Tests Hanjin Brion in LCK Game 2

Nongshim Red Force locked Alistar for Lehends despite the champion sitting at just 44% win rate across 39 LCK games. The pick aims to create dive setups with Jarvan IV that punish Hanjin Brion's slower Nautilus engage patterns and force early skirmishes where Nongshim's higher team form can snowball. Success depends on Sponge landing coordinated ganks before Hanjin Brion's scaling pieces stabilize the map.

TL;DR: In LCK Game 2, HANJIN BRION (blue) faces NONGSHIM RED FORCE (red) with the draft model assigning 34% win probability to the blue side and 66% to the red side. Nongshim Red Force's Alistar selection for Lehends at 44% WR over 39 LCK games stands as the defining surprise against Nautilus's 60% over 80 games. The pre-match series line sat at 35-65 for Nongshim.

Compositions: HANJIN BRION vs NONGSHIM RED FORCE

HANJIN BRION fields K'Sante, Naafiri, Ryze, Ezreal and Nautilus for a scaling teamfight composition that prefers absorbing early pressure before transitioning into mid-game skirmishes around Ryze's zone control. NONGSHIM RED FORCE responds with Rumble, Jarvan IV, Syndra, Sivir and Alistar, building a skirmish-oriented engage setup that seeks to snowball through aggressive jungle pressure and bot-lane dives in the first 15 minutes.

Key Picks and Stats

Kingen's Rumble carries a 53.1% LCK win rate over 64 games and 52.2% versus K'Sante in 23 LCK games, giving NONGSHIM a clear top-lane edge. Sponge's Jarvan IV posts 71.4% versus Naafiri in 7 LCK games while GIDEON's Naafiri sits at only 28.6% in the same sample. Scout's Syndra holds 56.1% versus Ryze globally across 82 games. Diable's Sivir reaches 62.5% versus Ezreal in 8 LCK games against Teddy's 37.5% on the same champion in 8 LCK games. Lehends' Alistar records 66.7% versus Nautilus in 6 LCK games despite a 43.6% overall LCK win rate over 39 games.

Draft Edge

NONGSHIM RED FORCE emerges ahead from the draft. Higher duo synergy at 0.515, stronger team form at 0.600 and superior elo at 0.606 outweigh HANJIN BRION's weaker 0.250 team form and 0.394 elo. The Alistar pick creates a direct counter to Nautilus while Jarvan IV exploits Naafiri's poor LCK sample, establishing clear early-game win conditions around bot-lane dives and jungle skirmishes.

Polymarket Market

The Game 2 market prices HANJIN BRION at 30% and NONGSHIM RED FORCE at 70%, five percentage points more pessimistic on HANJIN BRION than the pre-match series line of 35-65. The market has moved against HANJIN BRION since the series odds opened, aligning with the draft's emphasis on NONGSHIM's skirmish tools and higher individual champion win rates in key matchups.

Prediction

The draft model predicts HANJIN BRION 34% to NONGSHIM RED FORCE 66%. Team form and the specific Alistar-Nautilus head-to-head favor NONGSHIM further, though a mental reset after Game 1 losses could allow HANJIN BRION to stabilize if they survive the first 15 minutes.

FAQ

Q: Why did NONGSHIM RED FORCE choose Alistar over stronger meta options against Nautilus? A: Lehends' Alistar holds 66.7% versus Nautilus in 6 LCK games and 60% globally over 80 games, providing dive synergy with Jarvan IV that the 44% overall LCK rate does not fully capture.

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*