T1 vs Movistar KOI Worlds G2: The Ezreal-Jhin Edge

TL;DR: T1 and Movistar KOI enter Worlds Game 2 with a 5v5 engage-and-poke draft matchup, and the model favors T1 59% to 41%. The clearest lane statistic is Supa’s Ezreal’s 55.5% global win rate against Jhin, a matchup advantage that could give Movistar KOI room to weather T1’s early pressure.

Compositions: T1 vs Movistar KOI

T1’s Gwen, Jarvan IV, Orianna, Jhin, and Karma combine pick threat with layered engage. Jarvan IV can lock down targets for Orianna’s Shockwave, while Karma’s shields and Jhin’s long-range follow-up help T1 control mid-game fights. Gwen offers a side-lane threat and strong late-game presence, but T1 needs reliable initiation to reach Viktor and Ezreal.

Movistar KOI’s Ornn, Xin Zhao, Viktor, Ezreal, and Seraphine bring scaling, poke, and teamfight tools. Ezreal and Viktor can soften opponents before Ornn or Xin Zhao commits; Seraphine adds sustain and follow-up control. The composition has strong late-game options, though it must avoid being caught by T1’s coordinated engage.

Key Picks and Stats

In top lane, Doran’s Gwen has a 55.7% global WR over 345G, while Myrwn’s Ornn has a 49.0% over 359G and a 66.7% Worlds WR over 3G. Gwen’s global record against Ornn is 40.0% over 5G, but Ornn’s is 60.0% over 5G against Gwen. That small sample favors Myrwn’s side of the matchup.

Jungle sets the pace: Oner’s Jarvan IV has a 50.4% global WR over 1709G and a 60.0% Worlds WR over 15G. Elyoya’s Xin Zhao sits at 48.6% globally over 1518G, but is 100.0% at Worlds over 2G. Jarvan IV has a 52.4% global WR against Xin Zhao over 309G, a meaningful historical edge for Oner.

Mid is close. Faker’s Orianna has a 50.8% global WR over 1203G and 58.3% at Worlds over 12G; Jojopyun’s Viktor is at 50.4% globally over 966G and 66.7% at Worlds over 9G. Viktor leads the global head-to-head 52.0% to 48.0% across 102G.

Bot lane tilts toward Movistar KOI on the global matchup: Supa’s Ezreal has a 50.4% global WR over 1719G, with a 55.5% WR against Jhin over 191G. Peyz’s Jhin is at 45.3% globally over 1085G, but 58.3% at Worlds over 12G; he has won both of his Worlds games on Jhin, with a 10.5 KDA. Keria’s Karma is 57.1% at Worlds over 7G, while Alvaro’s Seraphine is 75.0% over 8G.

Draft Edge

T1’s coordinated engage gives it the cleaner route to starting decisive fights, while Movistar KOI can answer with range, scaling, and Ornn’s initiation. The largest pre-draft expectation miss is the final pairing: last night’s analysis highlighted Rumble, Anivia, Pantheon, and Ezreal as KOI options, and named Vi or Rumble as likely first picks. Instead, KOI landed on Ornn and Seraphine, while T1 opened with Gwen rather than the projected Vi. The available information does not specify the bans, so the expected Vi and Nocturne bans cannot be confirmed.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket gives T1 78% to win Game 2 and 92% to win the series now, versus 86% series odds pre-match. That is a 6-percentage-point rise in T1’s series price. The Game market is 14 percentage points less bullish on T1 than the Series market, suggesting traders see more risk in this individual game than in T1’s overall series position. The market’s confidence fits T1’s prior Game 1 win and engage tools, though KOI’s scaling and strong Worlds records on Ornn and Seraphine leave room for a response.

Prediction

The draft model’s baseline is T1 59% — Movistar KOI 41%. T1’s form indicators and the 1-0 series lead support its edge, but its Jhin-Karma lane faces an unfavorable global matchup and KOI’s late-game composition is dangerous. A slight adjustment keeps T1 favored at 58%, with the market’s much stronger series confidence reflecting the broader series context rather than a guaranteed Game 2.

FAQ

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*