Worlds: Movistar KOI’s Qiyana-Cassiopeia Draft Edge

TL;DR: Movistar KOI face CTBC Flying Oyster in Worlds Game 1 with a 64%–36% model prediction favoring KOI. The defining draft fact is Jojopyun’s Cassiopeia into POUT’s Akali: Cassiopeia has a 59.6% global win rate against Akali across 57 games, and her Worlds record in that matchup is 100% across 2 games.

Compositions: Movistar KOI vs CTBC Flying Oyster

Movistar KOI’s blue-side draft pairs Elyoya’s Qiyana with Jojopyun’s Cassiopeia for skirmishes and layered pick potential. Kalista and Renata Glasc give Supa and Alvaro tools to start fights or turn an enemy engage, while Myrwn’s Trundle can disrupt frontliners and pressure a side lane. KOI want to create early-mid game action around Qiyana, then use Cassiopeia’s sustained damage and Kalista’s engage to control teamfights.

CTBC Flying Oyster’s Olaf, Lee Sin, Akali, Tristana, and Lulu lean toward skirmishing and direct engage. Shad0w’s Lee Sin can create early picks; Rest’s Olaf and POUT’s Akali want to reach the back line, with Lulu helping a carry survive. Tristana adds range and tower pressure, but CTBC need to find clean access to KOI’s carries before Cassiopeia can punish a dive.

Key Picks and Stats

At top, Myrwn’s Trundle has a 52.3% global WR over 457G and a 33.3% Worlds WR over 3G this season. Rest’s Olaf is at 52.4% globally over 555G and 83.3% at Worlds over 6G. Trundle’s global head-to-head is 55.6% over 27G against Olaf, while Olaf is 44.4% in that matchup.

Jungle is the most unusual pick: Elyoya’s Qiyana is a surprise, not the forecast’s expected Vi priority. She has a 59.4% global WR over 434G and an 83.3% Worlds WR over 6G. Shad0w’s Lee Sin stands at 54.6% globally over 969G and 44.4% at Worlds over 9G. Qiyana leads the global head-to-head at 52.9% over 34G, but each champion is at 50.0% in the small Worlds sample of 2G.

Mid gives KOI a clear matchup angle. Jojopyun’s Cassiopeia has a 55.7% global WR over 801G and a 100.0% Worlds WR over 4G; POUT’s Akali has 51.4% globally over 692G and 33.3% at Worlds over 6G. Cassiopeia is 59.6% over 57G against Akali globally, and 100.0% over 2G at Worlds.

Bot favors KOI on the matchup numbers: Supa’s Kalista has a 52.0% global WR over 375G and 25.0% at Worlds over 4G, while Doggo’s Tristana is at 48.9% globally over 237G and 0.0% at Worlds over 2G. Kalista is 100.0% against Tristana over 2G globally. Support is closer: Alvaro’s Renata Glasc has a 51.5% global WR over 369G and 25.0% at Worlds over 4G; Kino’s Lulu has a 48.2% global WR over 1138G and 50.0% at Worlds over 6G.

Draft Edge

The pre-draft read called out Nocturne, Anivia, and Vi as CTBC bans, and Akali, Nautilus, and Pantheon as KOI bans. It also projected Vi as a possible CTBC B1, with KOI potentially taking Vi or answering with Rumble. The actual picks instead feature Qiyana and Lee Sin in the jungle, with no Vi or Rumble; the forecasted B1 direction was not confirmed. Ban information is not provided, so whether the expected bans landed cannot be verified. Qiyana is the sharpest departure from the prior forecast.

KOI’s Cassiopeia matchup and stronger model team form (0.700 versus CTBC’s 0.400) make their draft easier to trust. CTBC can win through Lee Sin’s early tempo and a successful Olaf-Akali dive, but KOI have more ways to punish a predictable engage.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket prices Game 1 at Movistar KOI 70% and CTBC Flying Oyster 30%. The Series market is also 70%–30% now, compared with 68%–32% pre-match: a 2-percentage-point move toward KOI. The Game and Series odds are identical, so the market is not pricing this map as more favorable to KOI than the series overall.

That confidence fits the Cassiopeia-Akali matchup and KOI’s stronger team-form signal, though the market is more bullish on KOI than the model’s 64% Game prediction. CTBC’s route is to make the early game chaotic before Cassiopeia controls fights.

Prediction

The model gives Movistar KOI a 64% chance against CTBC Flying Oyster’s 36%. I would keep the prediction near 64%: KOI have the stronger matchup profile and team-form signal, while CTBC’s 83.3% Worlds WR on Olaf is a meaningful counterweight. Elyoya’s Qiyana execution could swing the skirmish-heavy opening.

FAQ

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*