LYON vs Invictus Gaming: Milio Pick Shifts Worlds G3

TL;DR: LYON (2024 American Team) and Invictus Gaming meet in Worlds Game 3 with the draft model giving LYON a 54% edge to Invictus Gaming’s 46%. Invictus Gaming’s Milio matchup stands out: the model flags a 67% win rate over 9 games against Milio, putting LYON’s support pick under pressure.

Compositions: LYON (2024 American Team) vs Invictus Gaming

Invictus Gaming have drafted Lux into Milio despite the model’s 67% win rate over 9 games against Milio. Meiko’s Lux looks like a deliberate lane-pressure choice: Caitlyn and Lux can push for early control, but LYON’s Milio must survive the poke and protect Lucian if the lane is to stay playable.

LYON’s composition pairs K’Sante’s frontline and Xin Zhao’s skirmishing with LeBlanc’s pick threat and Lucian-Milio’s mobile damage. They want early and mid-game fights around LeBlanc’s roams and Xin Zhao’s engage, then can use K’Sante to hold the front line. Invictus Gaming instead have Jayce poke, Orianna teamfight control, and Caitlyn-Lux range; they want to chip away before committing, while Trundle helps contest the frontline. Their late-game teamfight depends on Orianna finding a strong Shockwave.

Key Picks and Stats

Top lane is a counter-pick test: Dhokla’s K’Sante has a 45.4% global WR over 1426G and a 28.6% Worlds WR over 14G, while TheShy’s Jayce sits at 46.6% over 1047G globally and 55.6% over 9G at Worlds. K’Sante has a 55.4% global WR over 166G against Jayce, but TheShy’s Worlds matchup figure is 33.3% over 3G.

In the jungle, Inspired’s Xin Zhao has a 48.6% global WR over 1519G and a 66.7% Worlds WR over 3G; his Worlds record on the pick is 100% over 1G, with a 9.0 KDA. Wei’s Trundle is at 52.4% over 460G globally and 50.0% over 6G at Worlds. Xin Zhao has a 53.7% global WR over 82G against Trundle.

Mid favors the model’s matchup signal: Saint’s LeBlanc has a 53.0% global WR over 264G and 100% over 1G at Worlds, while Rookie’s Orianna has a 50.8% over 1204G and 61.5% over 13G. LeBlanc’s global WR against Orianna is 55.0% over 20G.

Bot lane is less comfortable for LYON. Berserker’s Lucian has a 48.8% global WR over 1021G and 33.3% over 9G at Worlds; his Worlds record on Lucian is 0% over 1G, with a 0.8 KDA. JiaQi’s Caitlyn is at 51.8% over 900G globally and 25.0% over 4G at Worlds. Against Lucian, Caitlyn has a 56.3% global WR over 119G. Isles’ Milio has a 48.2% global WR over 845G and 28.6% over 7G at Worlds, while Meiko’s Lux has a 65.5% global WR over 87G.

Draft Edge

The pre-draft forecast expected Vi as a likely B1 if available, with Jarvan IV as a blue-side alternative; neither appears. The recommended bans—Vi, Ezreal, and Xin Zhao for Invictus Gaming, and Nocturne, Orianna, and Seraphine for LYON—cannot be confirmed from the supplied draft, but Orianna and Xin Zhao were picked rather than removed. LYON’s LeBlanc is the key answer into Orianna, while the Lux pick into Milio is the sharpest departure from the matchup comfort implied by the model.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket prices the Game 3 moneyline at LYON 44% and Invictus Gaming 56%; the Series Now market is also LYON 44% and Invictus Gaming 56%. No Series pre-match percentages were provided, so the movement since pre-match cannot be established. Because this is the deciding Game 3, Polymarket reuses the series moneyline rather than creating a per-game market; these figures are not separate signals. The market favors Invictus Gaming despite the draft model’s LYON edge, likely reflecting series context and the threat of Caitlyn-Lux pressure.

Prediction

The model’s 54%–46% lean toward LYON is defensible: LeBlanc’s matchup and the stronger listed Xin Zhao matchup give LYON ways to disrupt Invictus Gaming’s setup. I would keep LYON narrowly ahead, but the market’s 56% for Invictus Gaming and the bot-lane pressure make the call fragile. Invictus Gaming won Game 1, then LYON took Game 2; that split leaves the deciding map with no clear momentum advantage.

FAQ

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*