Worlds: Locke Gamble Puts Bilibili Gaming Ahead of Top Esports

TL;DR: In Worlds Game 2, Bilibili Gaming’s LeBlanc faces Top Esports’ Locke in a striking mid-lane matchup: Locke has won 44% of 9 Worlds games, while its global record into LeBlanc is 17% over 6G. The draft model favors Bilibili Gaming 61% to 39%, with Ashe–Seraphine adding reliable teamfight tools.

Top Esports’ Locke pick asks Creme to hold the mid lane against Knight’s LeBlanc and create room for Jarvan IV engagements; it is a deliberate, high-pressure test, not an obvious comfort counter. If Creme can survive LeBlanc’s early threat and join fights on time, Top Esports can turn its engage into a win condition.

Compositions: Bilibili Gaming vs Top Esports

Bilibili Gaming have a flexible engage-and-teamfight composition. Xun’s Wukong can start fights, while Bin’s K’Sante offers a second frontline threat and Knight’s LeBlanc supplies pick pressure and side-lane danger. Viper’s Ashe and ON’s Seraphine add poke, vision, and follow-up engage. Early, Bilibili want to establish lane control and find LeBlanc angles; in mid game, Ashe’s arrow can set up Wukong’s entry. They scale into coordinated fights, though their bot-lane pairing should avoid being forced into a narrow, defensive role.

Top Esports have a more direct engage package: Tian’s Jarvan IV can lock down targets for 369’s Aatrox and JackeyLove’s Lucian, while Zhuo’s Milio helps protect carries. Their best route is to skirmish early and use Jarvan’s access to reach Ashe or LeBlanc before Bilibili’s counter-engage forms. Lucian gives them lane pressure, but the composition must convert it; Bilibili’s range and teamfight tools become harder to handle as fights stretch out.

Key Picks and Stats

In top lane, Bin’s K’Sante is at 45.3% global WR over 1427G and 26.7% at Worlds over 15G; 369’s Aatrox is at 47.6% over 492G and 0% at Worlds over 2G. Aatrox has a 56.2% global WR into K’Sante over 16G, a clear matchup advantage, though the Worlds sample is tiny on both sides.

Jungle slightly favors Tian on the matchup numbers: Jarvan IV has a 54.1% global WR into Wukong over 148G. Tian’s own Jarvan IV sits at 50.4% over 1711G and 58.8% at Worlds over 17G, against Xun’s Wukong at 44.8% over 1138G and 50% at Worlds over 8G.

Mid is the draft’s sharpest contrast. Knight’s LeBlanc has a 52.8% global WR over 265G and 50% at Worlds over 2G; Creme’s Locke has a 52% global WR over 302G but only 44.4% at Worlds over 9G. Creme’s Locke is 100% over 1G with a 5.5 KDA, but the global Locke-versus-LeBlanc record is just 16.7% over 6G. The supplied model’s Worlds signal is 44% over 9G against LeBlanc’s 17% global mark over 6G.

Bot lane leans toward Bilibili: Viper’s Ashe has a 55.4% global WR over 933G and 71.4% at Worlds over 7G; JackeyLove’s Lucian is at 48.7% over 1022G and 30% at Worlds over 10G. Ashe is 54.1% into Lucian globally over 98G. Viper’s Ashe and ON’s Seraphine each show 0% over 1G at Worlds together with a 2.2 KDA, while Zhuo’s Milio is 25% at Worlds over 8G. Seraphine has a 53.3% global WR into Milio over 105G.

Draft Edge

Bilibili’s Ashe–Seraphine pairing and LeBlanc pressure give them the cleaner route to controlled fights, while Top Esports’ Aatrox has the lane matchup edge and Jarvan IV brings strong Worlds results. The pre-draft forecast expected Bilibili to consider banning Vi, Rumble, and Ashe, and Top Esports to target Ezreal, Ryze, and Jarvan IV. The visible draft instead features Jarvan IV and Ashe; the forecasted Vi and Rumble route did not materialize. No B1 confirmation can be established from the supplied draft order. Locke is the unexpected choice relative to the forecast, which highlighted Top Esports’ Ashe–Seraphine route.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket gives Bilibili Gaming 78% to win Game 2 and 92% to win the series, against Top Esports at 22% and 8%. The series market was 76% for Bilibili before the match, so it has moved 16 percentage points toward them—not 68.0 points; that supplied delta conflicts with the listed odds. The Game market is 14 points less optimistic about Bilibili than the series market, suggesting bettors see Top Esports as more competitive on this map than across the full series. Bilibili’s first-game win and stronger draft-model rating support their series price, while Top Esports’ Jarvan–Aatrox engage keeps the single-game upset plausible.

Prediction

The model’s 61%–39% call favors Bilibili Gaming, and the draft supports that edge through Ashe–Seraphine’s teamfight utility and Knight’s pressure into Locke. The model’s season WR signals also favor Bilibili, 68.8% to 54.2%. I would shade the pick slightly toward Bilibili at 63%: they won Game 1, but Top Esports’ 78% Game 2 market price for Bilibili and Tian’s strong Worlds Jarvan record underline that this is no settled map.

FAQ

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*