Sentinels vs Disguised: Lulu-Shen Draft Edge in LCS

TL;DR: In LCS Game 2, Sentinels are 73% favorites over Disguised at 27%, and the draft’s defining wrinkle is huhi’s Lulu into Lyonz’s Shen: Sentinels have won 67% of this team-versus-Shen matchup over 9G, despite huhi having only 1G on Lulu in LCS.

Lulu is a deliberate protection pick rather than a comfort selection for huhi, whose lone LCS Lulu game was a loss. Sentinels are betting that Kled, Trundle and Galio can create the engage windows Yunara needs, while Lulu keeps Rahel alive through Shen’s global pressure and Ziggs poke.

Compositions: Sentinels vs Disguised

Sentinels drafted a direct skirmish-and-teamfight composition. Impact’s Kled wants side-lane pressure and decisive engages; HamBak’s Trundle can isolate targets with Pillar; DARKWINGS’s Galio follows those entries; and Rahel’s Yunara gets Lulu scaling and peel. Their early game needs coordinated roams around Trundle and Galio, then clean engage choices before Disguised can establish poke control.

Disguised have more layered long-range pressure through Callme’s Orianna and sajed’s Ziggs, plus Shen’s global engage and Olaf’s frontline threat. KryRa’s Naafiri must find flanks onto Yunara, because a front-to-back fight favors Sentinels once Lulu shields their carry. Olaf can split-push, but Kled’s ultimate and Galio’s roam make isolated side lanes dangerous.

Key Picks and Stats

Top lane is sharply favorable to Impact. His Kled owns a 60.0% global WR over 35G, a 100.0% LCS WR over 2G, and a 100.0% LCS WR over 1G for Impact with a 3.5 KDA. Against Olaf, Kled is 63.2% over 19G, while Srtty’s Olaf is only 36.8% over 19G versus Kled and 0.0% over 2G in LCS.

Jungle is the volatile lane. HamBak’s Trundle is 52.4% global over 334G, but he is 0.0% over 2G on the champion in LCS despite a 6.0 KDA. KryRa’s Naafiri has a 66.7% LCS WR over 18G, although Naafiri is just 36.4% over 22G into Trundle. Mid offers Disguised a concrete counter-pick: Callme’s Orianna is 60.0% over 40G in LCS and 100.0% over 5G versus Galio, while DARKWINGS’s Galio is 0.0% over 5G into Orianna.

Rahel’s Yunara is 51.5% over 33G in LCS but 0.0% over 1G personally. sajed’s Ziggs sits at 41.7% over 12G in LCS, limiting Disguised’s poke reliability. Lyonz’s Shen is a meta-strength support at 68.2% over 22G in LCS, but his 33.3% over 9G matchup into Lulu explains Sentinels’ response.

Draft Edge

Last night’s forecast expected Sentinels to prioritize Orianna and Disguised to remove Bard, Skarner and likely Orianna. The actual draft instead handed Orianna to Callme, making the mid matchup Disguised’s clearest edge, while Lulu into Shen is the departure that changes the texture of the game.

Sentinels still own the broader draft edge through Kled’s counter-pick and their 53.9% aggregate matchup signal against Disguised’s 46.1%. Disguised win by using Orianna-Ziggs poke to delay fights, then sending Naafiri and Shen onto Yunara; Sentinels win by snowballing top-side skirmishes and denying that access with Lulu.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket makes Sentinels 72% favorites for Game 2, against 28% for Disguised. The series market is even more decisive at 92% for Sentinels and 8% for Disguised, up from 80% and 20% pre-match: a 12 percentage point move toward Sentinels.

The Game market is less optimistic about Sentinels than the series market, recognizing that Callme’s Orianna and Lyonz’s Shen give Disguised a credible single-map path. Still, real-money pricing agrees with the draft model: Kled’s top-lane advantage and Lulu’s answer to Shen outweigh Disguised’s poke ceiling.

Prediction

The model projects Sentinels 73% to Disguised 27%, and this draft supports a slight hold at 73% rather than an upgrade. Sentinels won Game 1 6-18 kills in 32:20, so momentum and Disguised’s 30.0% team-form signal matter; however, Callme’s Orianna lane record is the factor most capable of disrupting the favorite.

FAQ

A: Yes: Orianna is 100.0% over 5G versus Galio in LCS, while DARKWINGS is 0.0% over 5G in that matchup. Disguised need that lane edge to translate into objective poke.

A: The team-versus-Shen matchup is 67% over 9G, while Shen is only 33.3% over 9G into Lulu. Lulu’s shields and peel are designed to protect Rahel’s Yunara from Shen-Naafiri engage.

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*