Cloud9 vs Disguised LCS: Loki’s Risky Ryze Draft Call

TL;DR: Cloud9 face Disguised in LCS Game 2 with the draft model favoring Cloud9 68% to 32%, but Loki’s Ryze is the defining wrinkle: Ryze holds only a 40% LCS WR across 48G, while Loki has lost both of his LCS games on the champion. Cloud9 need that mid priority to unlock their engage.

Loki’s Ryze makes Cloud9’s draft more volatile than the overall model suggests. The pick signals a deliberate attempt to create side-lane pressure and Realm Warp-led engages, but it must survive Callme’s Taliyah control before Bard and Skarner can turn the map into Cloud9 territory.

Compositions: Cloud9 vs Disguised

Cloud9 have a front-to-back teamfight composition with Thanatos on Renekton and Blaber on Skarner supplying engage, Loki’s Ryze providing follow-up damage and roam angles, and Tactical’s Ezreal plus Vulcan’s Bard offering poke and picks. Their ideal early game is stable lanes into Skarner pressure; the mid game is where Bard portals, Ryze ultimates, and Skarner catches can snowball objectives.

Disguised answer with a more specialized draft. Srtty’s Vayne is a counter-pick into Renekton and offers late-game scaling plus split-push pressure, while KryRa’s Naafiri wants sharp skirmishes around Taliyah’s zone control. sajed’s Ziggs gives siege and poke, and Lyonz’s Shen can protect a side lane or convert a Naafiri engage into a numbers advantage. Disguised need to slow Cloud9’s first engage, then punish their shorter-range frontline.

Key Picks and Stats

Thanatos has a 50.0% global WR over 776G and a 38.5% LCS WR over 39G on Renekton, although his own 62.5% LCS WR over 8G and 3.2 KDA are encouraging. The lane is dangerous: Vayne has a 60.9% global WR against Renekton over 23G, while Srtty’s Vayne owns a 56.3% global WR over 183G but only a 42.9% LCS WR over 7G.

Blaber’s Skarner is a strong meta anchor at a 52.6% global WR over 346G and a 61.5% LCS WR over 13G, yet Blaber is 0.0% over 1G with a 2.4 KDA. KryRa’s Naafiri brings a 54.4% global WR over 493G, a 71.4% LCS WR over 14G, and a 60.0% global WR against Skarner over 20G, but KryRa is also 0.0% over 1G with a 0.2 KDA.

In mid, Ryze has a 51.8% global WR against Taliyah over 195G, but Loki’s 0.0% LCS WR over 2G and 1.8 KDA make the surprise risky. Callme’s Taliyah has a 56.0% LCS WR over 25G and a 53.8% LCS WR against Ryze over 13G, despite his own 0.0% over 2G.

Draft Edge

Cloud9 retain the draft edge because Bard-Skarner-Ryze creates several engage routes, and Vulcan’s Bard has a 66.7% LCS WR over 6G with an 8.4 KDA. Disguised’s best route is Srtty winning the Vayne lane, then using Shen to deny Cloud9’s first pick. Ziggs versus Ezreal also favors Disguised globally at a 57.9% WR over 38G.

Last night’s forecast expected Cloud9 to seek Orianna and Disguised to answer with Ryze or Pantheon. Neither proposed B1 can be confirmed without the ban and pick order, and the listed bans are unavailable; nevertheless, Cloud9 taking Ryze for Loki instead is a clear departure from that safer forecast.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket makes Cloud9 82% favorites for Game 2, versus 18% for Disguised. The Series market is even more decisive at 96% for Cloud9 and 4% for Disguised, up from 90% and 10% pre-match: a +6.7 percentage points move toward Cloud9.

The Game market is less optimistic for Cloud9 than the Series market, likely because Loki’s Ryze history and the Vayne-Renekton lane counter create real single-map upset paths. Still, Cloud9’s 21-4 Game 1 win in 23:30, superior Elo signal, and more reliable engage explain the market’s overwhelming series confidence.

Prediction

The model’s 68% Cloud9 and 32% Disguised projection remains fair, but the Ryze risk trims Cloud9 slightly to 66%. Game 1 momentum favors Cloud9, while both teams carry a 0.200 team-form signal; Disguised need KryRa and Callme to outperform their recent champion-specific results immediately.

FAQ

A: Yes, but Loki must improve on his 0.0% LCS WR over 2G and 1.8 KDA on Ryze against Callme’s 53.8% LCS WR against Ryze over 13G.

A: Vayne has a 60.9% global WR against Renekton over 23G, giving Disguised their clearest lane-based counter-pick and scaling win condition.

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*