FURIA vs Fluxo W7M CBLOL: Karma Draft Gamble

TL;DR: In CBLOL Game 2, FURIA are 60% favorites over Fluxo W7M after drafting blue-side Karma for JoJo, a pick with only a 38.1% CBLOL WR across 21G. FURIA need Karma to unlock Caitlyn siege and Galio-Jarvan engage rather than repeat JoJo’s lone Karma loss.

Compositions: FURIA vs Fluxo W7M

FURIA drafted a layered engage-and-poke composition: Guigo’s Volibear and Tatu’s Jarvan IV start fights, Tutsz’s Galio follows globally, and Ayu’s Caitlyn controls objectives through range and traps. JoJo’s Karma is the unusual enabler, supplying shields and poke so FURIA can establish space before committing. The plan is deliberate, but it demands clean lane priority and coordinated objective setups.

Fluxo W7M answer with sharper skirmish access. Zothve’s Ambessa, Peach’s Xin Zhao and cody’s Ahri can punish a separated target, while BAO’s Lucian and Momochi’s Milio provide a protected mid-game carry package. Their engage is less reliable into Galio and Karma shields, so Fluxo W7M want early ganks, snowball pressure and flank angles before Caitlyn becomes difficult to approach.

Key Picks and Stats

Top lane is volatile. Guigo has a 52.0% global WR over 50G and a 100.0% CBLOL WR over 2G on Volibear, with a 7.0 KDA; however, Volibear holds only a 47.4% global WR over 19G versus Ambessa. Zothve’s Ambessa has a 47.6% global WR over 1006G but a 62.5% CBLOL WR over 48G, making this a credible counter-pick lane for Fluxo W7M.

The jungle matchup favors FURIA’s local evidence. Tatu’s Jarvan IV is 48.0% in CBLOL over 50G, but he owns a 60.0% CBLOL WR over 5G versus Xin Zhao and a 60.0% WR over 5G personally, with a 7.0 KDA. Peach is at 28.9% in CBLOL over 45G on Xin Zhao and 25.0% over 8G personally, with a 1.9 KDA.

Mid is the draft’s clearest matchup warning. Tutsz has an 80.0% WR over 5G on Galio and a 62.5% CBLOL WR over 24G, yet Galio is 0.0% over 2G against Ahri in CBLOL. Cody’s Ahri is 100.0% over 2G versus Galio locally, despite his 20.0% personal Ahri WR over 5G.

Bot lane supports FURIA. Ayu’s Caitlyn posts a 55.1% global WR over 588G, 62.1% in CBLOL over 29G, and an 80.0% personal WR over 5G with a 7.3 KDA. Caitlyn’s 61.3% global WR over 75G against Lucian outweighs BAO’s 38.7% over 75G in the reverse matchup.

Draft Edge

Last night’s projected FURIA pool emphasized Sion, Ambessa, Ornn, Yunara and Pantheon; none appears here, while the expected bans on Nocturne, Orianna, Varus, Renekton, Nautilus and Jarvan IV cannot be confirmed because the ban phase and B1 order were not supplied. Karma is the forecast-breaking selection: JoJo is 0.0% over 1G on it in CBLOL.

FURIA nevertheless retain the better front-to-back win condition: Caitlyn range, Karma shields and Galio-Jarvan engage around dragons. Fluxo W7M must convert Ambessa-Ahri picks into a Lucian snowball before FURIA’s objective poke takes over.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket makes FURIA a 71% favorite for Game 2, against 29% for Fluxo W7M. The series market is even stronger at 89% versus 11%, up from 76% versus 24% pre-match; the supplied movement field lists -64.5 percentage points, which conflicts with the displayed series prices.

The Game market is less optimistic about FURIA than the Series market, implying Fluxo W7M still have a meaningful chance to steal this map despite FURIA’s broader series position. That caution fits Ambessa into Volibear and Ahri into Galio, but the market still respects FURIA’s Caitlyn lane edge and Game 1 win.

Prediction

The draft model calls FURIA 60% and Fluxo W7M 40%. I would keep FURIA at 60%: their 6-11 kill Game 1 win in 28:20 adds momentum, while both teams’ 0.300 team-form signals and JoJo’s Karma record prevent a larger upgrade.

FAQ

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*