Model Accuracy & Track Record

Every prediction frozen at registration time. Every result shown — including where the market wins.

Pre-match model

Team-signal predictions, frozen at registration time — published uncalibrated and resolved automatically

League	Month	N	Acc %	Brier(lower = better)	Mkt Brier
LCK	Sep 2026	7	57.1%	0.2388	0.1347✓
LEC	Sep 2026	5	40.0%	0.2289	0.1344✓
LPL	Sep 2026	9	66.7%	0.2306	0.1828✓
North American Challengers League	Sep 2026	6	33.3%	0.2696✓	0.4183
CBLOL	Aug 2026	24	79.2%	0.1953	0.1008✓
LCK	Aug 2026	39	35.9%	0.2611✓	0.2909
LCP	Aug 2026	17	70.6%	0.2307	0.1583✓
LCS	Aug 2026	20	80.0%	0.1816	0.1556✓
LEC	Aug 2026	37	59.5%	0.2249	0.1740✓
LES	Aug 2026	13	92.3%	0.1412	0.0929✓
LFL	Aug 2026	25	72.0%	0.2183	—
LPL	Aug 2026	52	67.3%	0.2218✓	0.2298
North American Challengers League	Aug 2026	22	59.1%	0.2396	0.1563✓
Prime League 1st Division	Aug 2026	16	56.3%	0.2299	0.2225✓
LCK	Jul 2026	6	50.0%	0.2416✓	0.3731
LCP	Jul 2026	8	62.5%	0.2091✓	0.2501
LEC	Jul 2026	8	87.5%	0.1656	0.1378✓
LES	Jul 2026	16	81.3%	0.1709	0.0749✓
LFL	Jul 2026	30	50.0%	0.2680	0.2270✓
LPL	Jul 2026	20	75.0%	0.2108	0.1699✓
MSI	Jul 2026	15	53.3%	0.2442	0.1828✓
North American Challengers League	Jul 2026	5	80.0%	0.2309✓	0.2775
Prime League 1st Division	Jul 2026	49	63.3%	0.2278✓	0.2346
EMEA Masters	Jun 2026	13	46.2%	0.2679	0.2639✓
MSI	Jun 2026	5	40.0%	0.2266	0.0030✓
Prime League 1st Division	Jun 2026	5	40.0%	0.3119✓	0.3192
Overall totals		501	62.3%	0.2252	0.2002

At-draft AI agent (Hermes)

Predicts at draft lock-in, compared against Polymarket odds captured at the same moment. Rows where the market wins are shown — that transparency is the credibility.

League	N	Acc %	Agent Brier(lower = better)	Mkt Brier
LCK	215	62.3%	0.2287	0.2267✓
LEC	155	62.6%	0.2274	0.2183✓
North Amer	146	62.3%	0.2363	0.2216✓
Prime Leag	144	63.2%	0.2260	0.2160✓
LCK CL	131	56.5%	0.2403	0.2367✓
LPL	123	65.8%	0.2277✓	0.2337
LCP	112	67.9%	0.2103	0.2054✓
LES	110	66.4%	0.2060	0.1896✓
LFL	106	67.0%	0.2149	0.1921✓
LCS	95	51.6%	0.2615✓	0.2642
CBLOL	91	65.9%	0.2247	0.2180✓
TCL	83	69.9%	0.2102	0.2048✓
LJL	76	61.8%	0.2363	0.2094✓
MSI	65	66.1%	0.2052	0.1978✓
VCS	33	54.5%	0.2543✓	0.2800
EWC	9	44.4%	0.3067	0.2723✓
LPLOL	9	77.8%	0.1155✓	0.1156
KeSPA Cup	7	57.1%	0.1991	0.1594✓
All leagues	1716	62.9%	0.2272	0.2191

✓ ★ agent Brier lower✓ ★ market Brier lower0.25 = coin flip

Methodology

The pre-match model uses team-level signals only: Elo ratings, season win rate, H2H record, and recent form — no champion data, frozen at prediction time. Hermes (the at-draft agent) adds seven signals including champion win rates and duo synergies. Brier score measures probabilistic accuracy: 0 = perfect, 1 = maximally wrong, 0.25 = equivalent to a 50/50 coin flip. Lower is better. Predictions are pre-registered — they cannot be edited after creation.

About the model·Our prediction game's append-only public ledger