Model Accuracy & Track Record
Every prediction frozen at registration time. Every result shown — including where the market wins.
Pre-match model
Team-signal predictions, frozen at registration time — published uncalibrated and resolved automatically
Accumulating results...
Pre-registered predictions started June 11, 2026 — results appear here as series resolve. Every prediction is frozen at creation and never edited.
At-draft AI agent (Hermes)
Predicts at draft lock-in, compared against Polymarket odds captured at the same moment. Rows where the market wins are shown — that transparency is the credibility.
Methodology
The pre-match model uses team-level signals only: Elo ratings, season win rate, H2H record, and recent form — no champion data, frozen at prediction time. Hermes (the at-draft agent) adds seven signals including champion win rates and duo synergies. Brier score measures probabilistic accuracy: 0 = perfect, 1 = maximally wrong, 0.25 = equivalent to a 50/50 coin flip. Lower is better. Predictions are pre-registered — they cannot be edited after creation.