Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI Prediction & Odds — LEC (Sep 18, 2026)
Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI prediction for LEC: model probability, Polymarket odds, head-to-head record and draft preview.
TL;DR: Natus Vincere 36.5% vs Movistar KOI 63.5%. KOI are the prediction because they enter as the market favorite, recently swept Natus Vincere 2-0, and have a sharper mid-game carry threat through Jojopyun, despite Natus Vincere’s stronger early-game metrics.
Natus Vincere arrive fourth in the LEC at 20W-14L (58.8%), with four wins in their past five series, including clean victories over Fnatic and Team Heretics. Their early-game score of 8.5/10 is built around Rhilech, whose +855 GD@15 and 8.3 KDA give Natus a major jungle advantage over Elyoya’s +339 GD@15. If Rhilech converts that edge into early objectives, Natus can make this series volatile before KOI’s carries reach their preferred fights.
Movistar KOI sit fifth at 20W-17L (54.1%) and have been less consistent recently, but their 2-0 win over Natus Vincere is the most relevant head-to-head signal. Jojopyun offers KOI their clearest lane-to-late-game route, posting +342 GD@15 and a 28.1% damage share, while Supa has a bot-lane +426 GD@15 advantage. Natus need Poby to avoid conceding control in mid lane and SamD to turn his 27.6% damage share into decisive late-fight output.
Draft could decide how much room Natus have to play through jungle. Orianna carries 75.1% presence and a 55.8% ban rate, making her a likely early denial or priority selection. KOI also have a compelling B1 case for Anivia, whose 87.5% WR in 8G from P1 makes her especially dangerous if Natus spend their first bans elsewhere. Rumble, with 60.3% WR in 116G, is another important comfort-pick concern for KOI.
Polymarket makes Movistar KOI the clear favorite at 63.5%, leaving Natus Vincere at 36.5%. That market view reflects KOI’s recent 2-0 head-to-head win, Jojopyun’s stronger mid-lane gold profile, and Supa’s bot-lane edge, while still respecting Natus’ superior early pressure through Rhilech.
Natus Vincere have the tools to steal games through Rhilech’s early control, but Movistar KOI’s draft options, carry lanes, and recent head-to-head result support Natus Vincere 36.5% vs Movistar KOI 63.5%.
FAQ
Q: Who is favored between Natus Vincere and Movistar KOI?
Movistar KOI are favored at 63.5% on Polymarket after beating Natus Vincere 2-0 and fielding stronger lane advantages through Jojopyun and Supa.
Q: Which player will decide Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI?
Rhilech is Natus Vincere’s key player because his +855 GD@15 is the biggest early advantage in the series. His ability to outpace Elyoya will determine whether Natus can prevent KOI from scaling.