G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI Prediction & Odds — LEC (Jul 24, 2026)

TL;DR: G2 Esports 69.5% vs Movistar KOI 30.5%. The clearest reason is that even with both teams slumping, G2 still hold the stronger overall record, the higher market-implied win probability, and a draft setup that should let them lean into priority picks like Ashe while attacking KOI with key bans.

This is a strange spot for both teams because neither side arrives in convincing form. G2 are still 19W-8L (70.4%) and sit 2nd in the LEC, but their last five series have gone 2W-3L, including heavy losses that dragged their form score down to 2.5/10. Movistar KOI are 15W-12L (55.6%) in 4th, and their recent run is even rougher at 1W-4L, although their 2.8/10 form score suggests they have at least been competitive enough to stay in the mix. The recent head-to-head also matters: KOI pushed G2 to 2-3 in their last meeting, which says this matchup is closer in execution than the standings alone suggest.

The early game numbers are where the matchup gets messy. G2 have an average total gold diff of -3,902 and a brutal team early-game score of 1.1/10, with Hans Sama at -972 GD@15, Caps at -336, and SkewMond at -374. KOI are not exactly fast starters either, but their overall early profile is less severe at -1,851 with a 3.1/10 score, and Elyoya stands out as the most reliable early-game difference maker with +146 GD@15 and 81.2% KP. If KOI win this series, it likely starts with Elyoya creating a lead before G2 can stabilize the map.

Still, G2 probably have the higher upside carry angles. Caps has a rising trend with 2.4 KDA and 25.3% damage share, while Hans Sama still carries 25.5% of G2’s damage despite the lane deficits. On the KOI side, Jojopyun remains dangerous at 26.7% damage share, but his -652 GD@15 hints at how much pressure he absorbs before teamfights ever begin.

Draft should be central in a BO3 like this. Expect heavy ban pressure on Varus and Orianna, both at 81.3% presence, and do not be surprised if G2 look for a B1 Ashe, which holds a strong 76.9% WR in 13 games and already fits Hans Sama’s recent pool. Nautilus at 75.2% presence but only 30% WR is the kind of trap priority that could punish whichever side drafts comfort over efficiency.

Polymarket’s number is the strongest outside signal here: G2 Esports 69.5%, Movistar KOI 30.5%. That gap makes sense because the market is pricing G2’s better season-long record, higher ceiling through Caps and Hans Sama, and the fact that KOI’s own recent slide has been nearly as worrying without offering clearly superior lane data outside Elyoya.

G2 are not entering cleanly, but the combination of superior record, more proven carry threat, and cleaner access to priority draft picks still makes G2 Esports 69.5% vs Movistar KOI 30.5% the right call.

FAQ

Q: Who is favored in G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI? A: G2 Esports are favored because they combine a 19W-8L (70.4%) record with a 69.5% Polymarket win probability, even though both teams have struggled recently.