FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion Prediction & Odds — LCS (Sep 25, 2026)
FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion prediction for LCS: model probability, Polymarket odds, head-to-head record and draft preview.
TL;DR: FlyQuest 77.5% vs Shopify Rebellion 22.5%. FlyQuest already beat Shopify Rebellion 2-0 this split and own a far healthier early game (3.2/10 against 1.0/10), which should decide a series where the Rebellion have lost four of their last five. Expect FlyQuest to close it out, likely in four games.
FlyQuest arrive with an 11W-13L record and a modest 3W-2L run over their last five series, including a clean 2-0 sweep of Shopify Rebellion and a 3-0 victory over Sentinels. The scoreboard is unkind in places — a 0-3 loss to Team Liquid lingers — but their underlying numbers are stable. FlyQuest average a -1,798 gold differential and 11.9 kills per game, and their early game grade of 3.2/10 is the clear edge in this matchup.
Shopify Rebellion sit at 6W-14L and have won just one of their last five series, a scrappy 3-2 over Sentinels. Their early game collapses are the story: a -7,117 average gold differential and a 1.0/10 early game score. Bvoy is a particular concern at -606 gold at 15 minutes, and Zeyzal trails at -406, meaning the bottom lane has been losing the map before the mid game even begins.
The players to watch are FlyQuest's topside. Gakgos holds a 5.1 KDA and a +469 gold differential at 15 minutes, the best early lane advantage in the series, while Gryffinn posts a 73.6% kill participation. On the Shopify side, Fudge is quietly their most reliable force with a +231 gold differential at 10 minutes, but his KDA trend is the only one rising alongside Contractz.
Draft should hinge on the mid lane. Orianna leads the meta at 67.8% presence and a 46.4% ban rate, and Shopify Rebellion ban her habitually, while FlyQuest frequently remove Nocturne at 66.5% presence and a 50.6% ban rate. Expect Lucian as a live first-pick threat at a 70.6% win rate across 17 games, and Ezreal close behind at 64.7%.
The market agrees with the numbers. Polymarket prices FlyQuest at 77.5% and Shopify Rebellion at 22.5%, a spread that reflects the early game gap, the 2-0 head-to-head result, and the Rebellion's four losses in five series. Rarely does a real-money market lean this hard toward a fourth-place team, and here the underlying stats justify it.
FlyQuest should win this series at roughly 77.5%, driven by superior early game execution and a head-to-head sweep, even if Shopify Rebellion steal a game through a chaotic teamfight.
FAQ
Q: Who is favored in FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion?
FlyQuest, at 77.5% on Polymarket. They average a -1,798 gold differential against Shopify's -7,117 and have already beaten them 2-0 this split.
Q: Which player decides FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion?
Gakgos, whose +469 gold differential at 15 minutes and 5.1 KDA give FlyQuest their biggest early lane advantage, pressuring a Rebellion topside that has struggled to stabilise.