Worlds: Dplus Kia’s Irelia Challenges KOI’s Gnar

TL;DR: Dplus Kia face Movistar KOI in Worlds Game 2, with the draft model giving Dplus Kia a 54% win probability to KOI’s 46%. Siwoo’s Irelia has won 78% of 9 games against Gnar, putting immediate pressure on Myrwn’s lane and giving Dplus Kia a potential split-push route.

Compositions: Dplus Kia vs Movistar KOI

Dplus Kia’s Irelia into Gnar is a deliberate pressure bet: Siwoo has a 78% WR over 9G in this matchup. It is not clear whether bans forced the pick, but Irelia must turn that edge into lane control and a side-lane threat before KOI’s group engage takes over.

Dplus Kia pair Irelia with Lucid’s Jarvan IV, ShowMaker’s Syndra, Smash’s Caitlyn, and Career’s Bard. Their plan is to poke and control space with Caitlyn and Syndra, then use Jarvan IV engage and Bard’s pick potential to start skirmishes. Irelia can split-push or flank in the mid-to-late game, but the composition needs vision and clean entry angles.

Movistar KOI answer with Myrwn’s Gnar, Elyoya’s Vi, Jojopyun’s Diana, Supa’s Yunara, and Alvaro’s Lulu. Vi and Diana provide reliable engage, while Lulu can protect Yunara as KOI scales toward teamfights. Gnar adds a frontline and a second initiation route; KOI want to survive the early pressure, then fight as a unit around objectives.

Key Picks and Stats

In top lane, Siwoo’s Irelia has a 61.9% global WR over 63G this season, while Myrwn’s Gnar stands at 54.2% over 1258G and 100% at Worlds over 2G. The matchup contrast is stark: Irelia has a 77.8% WR against Gnar over 9G, while Gnar is at 22.2% against Irelia over 9G.

In the jungle, Lucid’s Jarvan IV is at 50.4% globally over 1706G and 53.8% at Worlds over 13G; his Worlds record on the pick is 100% over 1G, with a 2.7 KDA. Elyoya’s Vi has a 53.2% global WR over 1318G and 85.7% at Worlds over 7G. Elyoya’s Vi has a 56.3% WR against Jarvan IV globally, although the Worlds matchup is 50% over 2G.

Mid is less settled by experience: ShowMaker’s Syndra has a 49.4% global WR over 944G and 50% at Worlds over 10G, while Jojopyun’s Diana is at 36.8% over 19G. Diana’s 100% record against Syndra comes from just 2G; ShowMaker’s Worlds Syndra is 100% over 1G, with an 8.0 KDA.

Bot lane favors Dplus Kia’s direct matchup numbers: Smash’s Caitlyn is at 51.8% globally over 898G, but 0% at Worlds over 2G; Supa’s Yunara has 50.9% over 1398G globally and 66.7% at Worlds over 6G. Caitlyn has a 57.1% WR against Yunara over 112G, while Yunara has 42.9%. At support, Career’s Bard is 52.6% globally and 50% at Worlds over 2G; Alvaro’s Lulu is 48.2% globally and 55.6% at Worlds over 9G. Bard’s matchup record is 53.5% against Lulu, whose record against Bard is 46.5%, both over 99G.

Draft Edge

The pre-draft read expected Jarvan IV or Vi as Dplus Kia’s B1, and Jarvan IV is in the final composition, but the draft data does not establish the actual pick order. Expected bans—Nocturne, Orianna, and Varus from Dplus Kia, and Jarvan IV, Jayce, and Nocturne from KOI—cannot be confirmed from the supplied information. The clearest forecast miss is Dplus Kia choosing Irelia into Gnar rather than the projected opening jungle options; KOI’s Rumble, Anivia, and Pantheon counters did not appear.

Dplus Kia’s strongest route is to exploit the top-lane record, then use Caitlyn-Syndra range to control objectives. KOI’s answer is more dependable point-and-click engage and stronger listed duo synergy, giving them a path to force fights before Irelia can dominate side lanes.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket prices Game 2 at Dplus Kia 74% and Movistar KOI 26%, while the Series market is Dplus Kia 90% and KOI 10%. The market is substantially more optimistic about Dplus Kia across the series than in this individual game: the 16-point gap suggests KOI are seen as having a better chance to take this map than to win the series.

The Series price has moved from Dplus Kia 80% pre-match to 90% now, an 11.0-percentage-point rise. Dplus Kia’s Game 1 win, 16-8 in kills over 39:20, offers immediate context for that shift. The draft model is more cautious at 54%-46%: KOI’s engage, Worlds results on Vi and Gnar, and synergy make this map less one-sided than the series price implies, despite the severe Irelia-Gnar matchup.

Prediction

The model’s call remains Dplus Kia 54%, Movistar KOI 46%. The Irelia-Gnar advantage and Dplus Kia’s 0.700 team-form signal justify a slight lean to Dplus Kia, but KOI’s 0.539 duo-synergy signal and 0.600 team form keep the game competitive. Game 1 momentum and the market’s shift favor Dplus Kia; a successful Vi-Diana engage could still overturn the draft lean.

FAQ

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*