SU Esports vs PCIFIC Esports: Scorth's Risky Ashe Pick

TL;DR: In TCL Game 3, SU Esports face PCIFIC Esports with the draft model favoring SU Esports 75% to 25%. PCIFIC Esports have put Scorth on Ashe, a champion with a 60.0% WR against Mel over 90G, despite Scorth holding 0.0% over 1G on Ashe in TCL.

PCIFIC Esports are leaning into a lane-counter narrative rather than Scorth’s own recent Ashe record. Ashe must establish push and pick pressure early enough for FireAscept’s LeBlanc and stalken’s Xin Zhao to punish SU Esports before their engage composition can snowball fights.

Compositions: SU Esports vs PCIFIC Esports

SU Esports draft IlllIma on Ambessa, RAMES on Vi, Vetheo on Locke, Nako on Mel, and Patch on Pyke. This is an engage-and-skirmish composition: Vi and Pyke create catches, Ambessa follows into the back line, and Mel supplies scaling damage. SU need decisive mid-game fights rather than a slow poke game.

PCIFIC Esports answer with Bayonetta on Warwick, stalken on Xin Zhao, FireAscept on LeBlanc, Scorth on Ashe, and monkaS on Seraphine. Their draft has stronger poke and pick tools, plus Seraphine scaling, but LeBlanc and Ashe must create priority before SU’s engage reaches them. Warwick can split-push or join flank engage, while Xin Zhao protects the carries.

Key Picks and Stats

IlllIma’s Ambessa has a 47.4% global WR over 1139G and 42.9% TCL WR over 28G, yet IlllIma is 100.0% over 2G with a 5.9 KDA on the pick. Against Bayonetta’s Warwick, Ambessa has a 50.0% WR over 2G; Warwick carries a striking 66.7% global WR over 6G, although that is a small sample.

RAMES brings a 53.2% global WR over 1105G Vi but only 45.5% over 33G in TCL. His 66.7% over 6G Vi record and 5.4 KDA are encouraging, but Vi is 0.0% over 4G against Xin Zhao in TCL. stalken’s Xin Zhao owns 60.0% over 50G in TCL and is 100.0% over 4G into Vi there.

Mid is PCIFIC’s cleanest statistical counter: Vetheo’s Locke has a 45.6% global WR over 147G, 33.3% over 3G in TCL, and 0.0% over 4G into LeBlanc globally. FireAscept’s LeBlanc is 50.7% over 209G, though his personal TCL LeBlanc mark is 37.5% over 8G with a 4.0 KDA.

Bot lane is volatile. Nako’s Mel is 50.0% over 10G in TCL and 66.7% over 3G into Ashe in TCL, while Scorth’s Ashe has the unfavorable 0.0% over 1G TCL record. Patch’s Pyke is 33.3% over 12G in TCL, versus monkaS’s Seraphine at 63.6% over 22G and 66.7% over 3G personally.

Draft Edge

PCIFIC Esports have lane-specific answers through LeBlanc into Locke, Xin Zhao into Vi, and Ashe into Mel globally. Still, SU Esports have the more reliable engage chain and superior 0.800 team-form signal versus 0.400. SU win by forcing Vi-Pyke picks around objectives; PCIFIC win if Ashe arrows and LeBlanc roam create a controlled poke setup.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket prices Game 3 at 62% for SU Esports and 38% for PCIFIC Esports, while the Series Now market is 93% for SU Esports and 7% for PCIFIC Esports. No Series Pre-Match percentage is provided, so market movement cannot be measured directly.

The Game market is substantially more optimistic about PCIFIC than the series market: 38% versus 7%. That reflects a draft with real counter-pick paths despite SU’s series position. SU won G1 at 7-11 kills in 31:10 and G2 at 13-25 kills in 31:50, showing they have already converted wins despite losing the kill count in both games.

Prediction

The model starts at 75% for SU Esports and 25% for PCIFIC Esports. I would shade that slightly toward SU because of form, momentum, and their proven ability to close messy games, but PCIFIC’s LeBlanc-Xin Zhao pressure and Ashe-versus-Mel matchup keep this more competitive than the Series Now price suggests.

FAQ

A: Ashe has a 60.0% WR against Mel over 90G, but Scorth’s own TCL Ashe sample is 0.0% over 1G, while Nako is 66.7% over 3G against Ashe in TCL.

A: RAMES has a 66.7% WR over 6G and 5.4 KDA on Vi in TCL. However, Vi’s 0.0% over 4G TCL record into Xin Zhao means he must avoid predictable engage angles.

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*