SU Esports vs Bushido Wildcats: Nautilus Risk in TCL

TL;DR: SU Esports meet Bushido Wildcats in TCL Game 4, with the draft model favoring Bushido Wildcats 69% to 31%. The defining draft wrinkle is Carry’s Nautilus: he holds a 0.0% TCL WR over 1G on the champion, while Nautilus has only 42% TCL WR over 41G.

Bushido Wildcats are asking Carry’s Nautilus to create the engage that lets Osman123’s Naafiri and Ruep’s Kai'Sa reach the back line. That is a deliberate high-variance call rather than a comfort signal: it works only if Nautilus finds early picks before Sivir’s waveclear and SU Esports’ front-to-back teamfighting take over.

Compositions: SU Esports vs Bushido Wildcats

SU Esports draft a durable engage-and-scaling composition. IlllIma’s Ambessa and RAMES’ Sejuani want skirmishes around early objectives, while Vetheo’s Sylas can flex between follow-up engage and stolen utility. Nako’s Sivir supplies late-game waveclear, poke resistance, and teamfight scaling; Patch’s Leona gives the composition a reliable start button.

Bushido Wildcats have more explosive pick potential. Aytekn’s Gnar provides flank engage or split-push pressure, Osman123’s Naafiri threatens ganks into isolated targets, and Camana’s Anivia can lock down corridors around dragons and barons. Their win condition is to snowball through picks and decisive mid-game fights before Sivir can safely erase waves.

Key Picks and Stats

Top lane strongly favors Gnar on paper. IlllIma’s Ambessa has a 47.8% global WR over 1158G and 41.4% in TCL over 29G, despite his own 66.7% TCL WR over 3G with a 2.1 KDA. Aytekn’s Gnar posts 55.0% globally over 1092G, 51.4% in TCL over 35G, and a 59.5% global WR over 148G versus Ambessa; Ambessa returns only 40.5% over 148G.

The jungle matchup is closer, but Osman123 is a major form signal. RAMES’ Sejuani is at 48.1% globally over 108G, 50.0% in TCL over 2G, and 50.0% over 8G against Naafiri. Osman123’s Naafiri has 52.0% global WR over 625G, 66.7% in TCL over 24G, and his own 100.0% TCL WR over 3G with a 5.8 KDA.

Mid lane offers SU Esports a real counter-pick avenue. Vetheo’s Sylas is weak at 45.1% globally over 319G and 21.4% in TCL over 14G, but has a 66.7% global WR over 3G versus Anivia. Camana’s Anivia is 52.2% globally over 584G and 64.7% in TCL over 17G, though only 33.3% over 3G versus Sylas.

Bot lane is volatile. Nako’s Sivir owns 54.3% global WR over 617G, while Ruep’s Kai'Sa has 54.5% over 332G but only 28.6% in TCL over 7G. Patch’s Leona has a 61.4% global WR over 101G against Nautilus, compared with Carry’s 38.6% over 101G against Leona.

Draft Edge

Bushido Wildcats retain the draft edge through Gnar, Naafiri, Anivia control, and superior recent team form at 0.800 versus 0.500. Their red-side core can punish Sylas before he reaches decisive stolen ultimates.

Still, SU Esports have the cleaner front-to-back execution. Sivir and Leona can neutralize the Nautilus gamble, and a stable early game gives Ambessa and Sylas enough time to contest every objective fight.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket prices Game 4 at 55% for SU Esports and 46% for Bushido Wildcats, sharply opposing the model. The Series NOW market instead gives SU Esports 33% and Bushido Wildcats 67%. No Series Pre-Match percentage is available, so movement from the opening series market cannot be quantified.

The market is far more optimistic about SU Esports in this individual Game than in the overall series: 55% in Game 4 versus 33% for the series. That likely reflects confidence in Sivir-Leona into Carry’s Nautilus, whose 0.0% TCL WR over 1G is an obvious draft-specific risk, even as Bushido Wildcats remain the stronger series side.

Prediction

The model projects Bushido Wildcats 69% to SU Esports 31%. I would narrow that slightly to Bushido Wildcats 64% and SU Esports 36%: Carry’s Nautilus versus Patch’s Leona is a tangible liability, but Bushido Wildcats’ 0.800 form, 0.571 head-to-head signal, and Osman123’s Naafiri ceiling remain more persuasive.

Series context is balanced after Bushido Wildcats won G1 15-8 in 29:10 and SU Esports answered in G2 14-12 in 38:50. SU Esports proved they can extend the series into their scaling territory, but Bushido Wildcats have the sharper early-game tools.

FAQ

A: Yes. Patch has a 61.4% global WR over 101G against Nautilus and a 66.7% TCL WR over 9G, while Carry is at 38.6% globally over 101G in the matchup.

A: The matchup data supports the idea: Sylas has a 66.7% global WR over 3G against Anivia, while Anivia has 33.3% over 3G against Sylas. The sample is small, however, and Vetheo’s 21.4% TCL WR over 14G on Sylas is a serious warning.

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*