TCL: SU Esports vs Bushido Wildcats, Rell Surprise

TL;DR: In TCL Game 2, SU Esports face Bushido Wildcats with the draft model favoring Bushido Wildcats 57% to 43%, despite Carry bringing a 68.4% global WR into Rell over 19G on Lulu. That edge is tempered by Carry’s 0.0% TCL Lulu record over 1G, making the red-side protection pick a pivotal test.

Compositions: SU Esports vs Bushido Wildcats

SU Esports drafted a poke-and-engage composition: IlllIma’s Jayce and Nako’s Ziggs want turret pressure before RAMES’s Jarvan IV and Patch’s Rell force a fight. Vetheo’s Ryze supplies reliable scaling, side-lane threat, and follow-up damage once SU create space. Their early game needs controlled lane priority; an overextended Jayce-Ziggs siege can be punished by Xin Zhao and Aurora.

Bushido Wildcats have a more direct skirmish-to-teamfight setup. Aytekn’s Sion gives the front line, Osman123’s Xin Zhao can contest early objectives, and Camana’s Aurora can disrupt clustered opponents. Ruep’s Yunara with Carry’s Lulu is the late-game carry package, but Carry’s unusual record against Rell suggests Bushido must use Lulu’s protection proactively rather than wait for Rell’s engage. If Yunara reaches items without surrendering towers, Bushido’s scaling is cleaner.

Key Picks and Stats

Top lane is a narrow Jayce counter angle. IlllIma’s Jayce has a 47.2% global WR over 835G and 46.2% in TCL over 13G, but Jayce holds a 53.4% global WR versus Sion over 118G. IlllIma is 100.0% on Jayce in TCL over 1G with a 6.0 KDA. Aytekn’s Sion answers with a 48.1% global WR over 971G, 51.2% in TCL over 41G, and only 46.6% versus Jayce over 118G.

The jungle matchup favors red-side execution. RAMES has a 44.7% TCL WR on Jarvan IV over 38G, and Jarvan IV is only 37.5% versus Xin Zhao in TCL over 8G. Osman123 posts 61.5% in TCL on Xin Zhao over 52G, plus 62.5% versus Jarvan IV over 8G, while his 100.0% Xin Zhao record over 1G carries a 4.7 KDA.

Mid gives SU their strongest individual statistical lane: Vetheo has 58.3% in TCL on Ryze over 48G, a 100.0% Ryze record over 1G, and 56.9% versus Aurora over 58G. Camana’s Aurora has 58.6% in TCL over 29G, but only 43.1% versus Ryze over 58G. Bot lane tilts Bushido: Ruep’s Yunara has 58.3% in TCL over 36G and 56.2% versus Ziggs over 16G, while Nako’s Ziggs is just 25.0% in TCL over 4G.

Draft Edge

Bushido Wildcats hold the draft edge because Xin Zhao, Aurora, Sion, and Lulu can deny SU’s preferred poke setup and create a protected Yunara carry. Their key condition is converting Osman123’s jungle pressure into dragons before Ziggs can dismantle outer towers.

SU Esports can overturn that edge through Jayce’s lane advantage, Ryze’s favorable Aurora matchup, and decisive Jarvan IV-Rell engage. Patch’s 58.6% TCL Rell WR over 29G and 100.0% personal record over 2G are meaningful, but Rell must find first contact before Lulu can reset the fight.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket makes SU Esports 64% and Bushido Wildcats 36% for Game 2, while the current series market prices SU at 56% and Bushido at 44%. Series pre-match odds are unavailable, so no verified market movement can be calculated.

The market is 8 percentage points more optimistic about SU in this specific game than in the overall series. That likely reflects confidence in Vetheo’s Ryze lane and SU’s engage tools, but it conflicts with Bushido’s stronger Xin Zhao, Yunara, and composition-level scaling signals. The Game price looks aggressive after Bushido’s 15-8 Game 1 win in 29:10.

Prediction

The model calls Bushido Wildcats 57% to SU Esports 43%. I would tighten that to Bushido 54% and SU 46%: SU’s 0.700 team-form signal, Vetheo’s matchup, and market support justify a small adjustment, while Bushido’s 0.800 form, 0.556 head-to-head signal, and Game 1 momentum remain decisive.

FAQ

A: Patch has a 58.6% TCL WR on Rell over 29G, while Carry has a 0.0% TCL Lulu record over 1G. Rell engage can expose Lulu’s limited recent champion sample.

A: Osman123 owns a 61.5% TCL WR on Xin Zhao over 52G and a 62.5% WR versus Jarvan IV over 8G. RAMES’s Jarvan IV is only 37.5% against Xin Zhao in TCL over 8G.

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*