Shenzhen NIP vs Invictus Gaming LPL: Anivia into Olaf

TL;DR: Shenzhen NINJAS IN PYJAMAS face Invictus Gaming in LPL Game 1 with the draft model favoring NIP 54% to 46%. The defining wrinkle is NIPHOYA’s Anivia: she holds only a 33.3% LPL WR over 39G, yet owns an 80.0% LPL matchup WR over 5G against Olaf.

NIPHOYA’s Anivia turns a weak broad LPL record into a targeted answer to IGTheShy’s Olaf, and Shenzhen NINJAS IN PYJAMAS are betting that control, terrain and late-game scaling matter more than conventional lane comfort. It is a volatile call: Anivia must survive early pressure and convert wall placements into objective control before Olaf and Naafiri can snowball the map.

Compositions: Shenzhen NINJAS IN PYJAMAS vs Invictus Gaming

Shenzhen NINJAS IN PYJAMAS drafted a front-to-back scaling setup. NIPGuwon’s Maokai supplies engage and lockdown, NIPCare’s Yone threatens follow-up skirmishes, while NIPPhotic’s Yunara with NIPfengyue’s Lulu is the late-game carry core. Anivia’s zone control can make dragon and baron entrances exceptionally awkward.

Invictus Gaming want sharper early-to-mid-game fights. IGWei’s Naafiri and IGTheShy’s Olaf can force skirmishes, IGRookie’s Ryze adds roam and side-lane scaling, and IGMeiko’s Karma enables poke and movement speed for IGJiaQi’s Jhin. Their cleanest route is to create a numbers advantage before Lulu-enhanced Yunara becomes untouchable.

Key Picks and Stats

Anivia is the lane defining the draft. NIPHOYA’s champion has a 52.6% global WR over 563G but only a 33.3% LPL WR over 39G; against Olaf, however, the matchup rises to 56.2% globally over 16G and 80.0% in LPL over 5G. IGTheShy’s Olaf carries a 56.7% global WR over 289G and 53.8% in LPL over 52G, although his 100.0% Olaf LPL WR over 1G comes with a 0.7 KDA.

The middle-jungle matchup favors IG statistically. Maokai has a 50.9% global WR over 108G and 60.9% in LPL over 23G, but only a 25.0% LPL WR over 4G against Naafiri. NIPCare’s Yone is 57.6% in LPL over 33G, yet has a 33.3% LPL WR over 9G against IGRookie’s Ryze; Ryze posts 52.7% in LPL over 186G and a 66.7% LPL matchup WR.

Bot lane cuts back toward NIP. Yunara is only 42.4% in LPL over 125G, but NIPPhotic’s matchup is 77.8% over 9G versus Jhin. IGJiaQi’s Jhin is 38.3% in LPL over 120G, despite a 100.0% personal LPL WR over 1G and 4.0 KDA.

Draft Edge

NIP hold the narrow draft edge because Anivia, Maokai and Lulu create a durable teamfight shell around Yunara, while the Yunara-Jhin lane data strongly favors blue side. IG’s counterweight is real: Naafiri into Maokai and Ryze into Yone are their most reliable paths to a mid-game snowball.

Last night’s forecast expected Gnar as NIP’s likely B1 and Ryze as IG’s preferred B1, but the completed compositions instead feature Anivia and Olaf. The available draft data do not list bans, so the expected Orianna, Jarvan IV, Nocturne, Vi, Gnar and Renekton bans cannot be confirmed.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket prices Game 1 at 52% for Shenzhen NINJAS IN PYJAMAS and 48% for Invictus Gaming. Its pre-match series market was 54% to 46%, making the specific Game 1 price 2 percentage points less optimistic for NIP than the earlier series view.

No current series price is supplied, so a series-now movement versus pre-match cannot be measured. The Game and earlier series figures are very close, consistent with a market respecting NIP’s stronger overall profile but discounting the Anivia risk and IG’s strong Naafiri-Ryze middle map.

Prediction

The model remains 54% for Shenzhen NINJAS IN PYJAMAS and 46% for Invictus Gaming, but the on-draft call is slightly tighter at 53% to 47%. Both teams carry 0.700 team-form signals, while NIP’s 0.567 Elo and 0.544 season WR offset IG’s 0.532 head-to-head signal and faster 0.509 tempo.

FAQ

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*