Invictus Gaming's Renata Test vs Weibo Gaming in LPL

TL;DR: In LPL Game 2, Invictus Gaming are 53% favorites over Weibo Gaming at 47% in the draft model. Weibo Gaming’s Renata Glasc carries a 39% LPL WR over 18G, yet owns an 80% record against Seraphine over 5G, making support the draft’s decisive volatility point.

Compositions: Invictus Gaming vs Weibo Gaming

Weibo Gaming have committed to Renata Glasc beside WBGElk’s Kalista, seeking lane pressure, reset potential and a late-game bailout for WBGZika’s Ambessa or WBGXiaohao’s Nocturne engage. It looks deliberate rather than forced, but it requires WBGMoham to survive the Ashe poke lane and find an impactful Hostile Takeover before Invictus Gaming’s scaling back line takes over.

Invictus Gaming field IGTheShy on Renekton, IGWei on Trundle, IGRookie on Viktor, IGJiaQi on Ashe and IGMeiko on Seraphine. This is a front-to-back scaling teamfight composition with Ashe poke and pick threat, Viktor zone control, Seraphine sustain and Trundle’s ability to neutralize a diving tank or isolate a target with Pillar.

Weibo Gaming answer with Ambessa, Nocturne, Galio, Kalista and Renata Glasc: a far more explosive engage and skirmish draft. Their early and mid-game objective fights hinge on Nocturne darkness enabling Galio’s follow-up, while Kalista must snowball lane before Ashe and Seraphine turn grouped fights into a sustain war.

Key Picks and Stats

TheShy’s Renekton has a 49.9% global WR over 794G and 47.0% in LPL over 100G, but his matchup rises to 53.3% globally over 90G against Ambessa and 100.0% in LPL over 4G. Zika’s Ambessa is weaker at 47.5% globally over 1053G and 48.6% in LPL over 144G, including 0.0% in 4 LPL games against Renekton.

Jungle favors Wei statistically. His Trundle posts 52.6% globally over 304G and 53.0% in LPL over 66G, with a 62.5% LPL WR over 8G versus Nocturne. Xiaohao’s Nocturne has a 49.3% global WR over 672G and 51.2% in LPL over 82G, while falling to 37.5% over 8 LPL games versus Trundle.

Rookie’s Viktor is only 49.8% globally over 655G and 46.6% in LPL over 58G, but he is 100.0% over 3 LPL games into Xiaohu’s Galio. Xiaohu’s Galio sits at 42.6% in LPL over 47G. Bot lane is less clean: JiaQi’s Ashe has a 56.6% global WR over 686G and 63.1% in LPL over 103G, although only 40.0% over 5G versus Kalista. Elk’s Kalista is 53.8% in LPL over 13G and 60.0% over 5G into Ashe. Meiko’s Seraphine reaches 60.2% in LPL over 113G, but has 20.0% over 5G against Renata Glasc; Moham’s Renata is only 38.9% in LPL over 18G.

Draft Edge

Invictus Gaming hold the steadier draft edge through Trundle, Ashe and Seraphine scaling, plus favorable top, jungle and mid lane samples. Weibo Gaming’s win condition is sharper: create a Nocturne-Galio engage window, let Kalista secure tempo, then use Renata Glasc to deny Invictus Gaming’s counter-engage.

Last night’s projected B1 picks, Jarvan IV for Weibo Gaming and Rumble for Invictus Gaming, were not reflected in the completed compositions. Orianna, Rumble, Xin Zhao, Jarvan IV, Vi and Ryze are all absent, but the supplied draft does not show ban order, so the expected bans cannot be confirmed.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket makes Invictus Gaming 66% for Game 2 and Weibo Gaming 34%, while the current series market is 84% to 16%. Before the match, the series market was 64% to 36%; the displayed snapshots therefore favor Invictus Gaming more now, although the listed -48.0 percentage points series delta conflicts with those percentages.

The market is less optimistic about Invictus Gaming in this specific game than in the overall series. That makes sense after their 9-6, 23:50 Game 1 win: the series position is strong, but Weibo Gaming’s Nocturne-Galio-Kalista engage gives them a credible single-map comeback route.

Prediction

The model’s 53% to 47% Invictus Gaming lean is reasonable, and I would keep it at 53% to 47%. Invictus Gaming’s 0.700 team-form signal and Game 1 momentum support them, but Weibo Gaming’s 0.570 head-to-head signal and faster 0.515 tempo leave substantial upset room.

FAQ

A: It is possible through Galio follow-up, but Trundle holds a 62.5% LPL WR over 8G against Nocturne while Xiaohao’s side is 37.5% over the same sample.

A: Moham has only a 38.9% LPL WR over 18G on Renata Glasc, despite an 80.0% record over 5G against Seraphine. The matchup upside is real, but the broader league record is fragile.

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*