Team Liquid Leona Pick Tests Sentinels in LCS Game 1

TL;DR: Team Liquid faces Sentinels in LCS Game 1 with the draft model predicting a 76% win probability for Liquid and 24% for Sentinels. CoreJJ's Leona pick stands out as the key surprise given its 37.5% win rate in eight LCS games this season.

Team Liquid has surprised observers by selecting Leona for CoreJJ despite the champion sitting at a 37.5% win rate in the LCS this season over eight games. The pick comes against huhi's Rakan, which enjoys a strong 71.9% global win rate versus Leona across 32 games, indicating that Liquid aims to leverage early engages and set up Yeon's Ezreal for a strong mid-game transition. Success will depend on whether Morgan's Ambessa can create enough pressure top side to distract from the bot lane matchup.

Compositions: Team Liquid vs Sentinels

Team Liquid fields a skirmish-heavy composition built around Ambessa, Xin Zhao, Sylas, Ezreal and Leona. The team wants to force early fights and snowball through engages in the mid game while Ezreal scales safely. Sentinels counters with Gnar, Jarvan IV, Ryze, Kai'Sa and Rakan, favoring controlled scaling and poke that looks to outlast Liquid into the late game through superior teamfight positioning and split-push potential from Gnar.

Key Picks and Stats

Morgan's Ambessa posts a 54.8% win rate in 31 LCS games this season but drops to 20.0% versus Gnar in five LCS games, while Impact's Gnar sits at 65.6% in 32 LCS games and 80.0% versus Ambessa in five LCS games. Josedeodo's Xin Zhao carries a 48.8% win rate in 41 LCS games and 55.6% versus Jarvan IV in nine LCS games, though his personal sample with the champion is only 33.3% in six LCS games. Quid's Sylas shows 58.3% in 12 LCS games against Ryze. Yeon's Ezreal holds 52.3% in 44 LCS games and 53.2% versus Kai'Sa globally. CoreJJ's Leona is at 37.5% in eight LCS games. On the red side, DARKWINGS' Ryze is 41.3% in 46 LCS games, Rahel's Kai'Sa is 45.5% in 11 LCS games, and huhi's Rakan reaches 60.0% in 25 LCS games.

Draft Edge

Team Liquid holds the clearer draft edge through superior team form at 0.700 and stronger champion win rates in key lanes. The blue side's engage tools give them the initiative to dictate early tempo, while Sentinels must survive the mid-game window where Liquid's skirmish power peaks. Sentinels' win condition rests on reaching the late game where Ryze and Gnar can stabilize and punish overextensions.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket prices LCS Game 1 at Team Liquid 62% to Sentinels 38%. The Series NOW market sits at Team Liquid 74% to Sentinels 26%, compared with the pre-match series line of 76% to 24%, a minor two-percentage-point shift toward Sentinels. The game market sits notably below the series market, showing bettors view this individual map as more competitive even as the overall series heavily favors Liquid.

Prediction

The draft model projects Team Liquid at 76% to win Game 1. Liquid's 0.700 team form and 0.586 season win rate provide additional support for the favorite, though any mental reset from Sentinels after recent losses could narrow the gap in this single game.

FAQ

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*