Disguised vs LYON LCS: Srtty's Risky Jayce Gamble

TL;DR: In LCS Game 1, Disguised face LYON (2024 American Team) with the draft model at 12% for Disguised and 88% for LYON. Srtty’s Jayce is the volatile call: he owns a 0.0% LCS WR over 2G, yet Jayce carries a 63.6% WR versus Malphite over 22G and must create an early lead.

Compositions: Disguised vs LYON (2024 American Team)

Disguised drafted a high-execution poke and engage composition: Srtty on Jayce and Callme on Ryze need lane priority, while KryRa’s Jarvan IV gives them the engage to convert poke into decisive skirmishes. sajed’s Jhin and Lyonz’s Nautilus can follow up from range, but this lineup needs a clean early-to-mid-game snowball rather than a slow scaling contest.

LYON (2024 American Team) answer with reliable teamfight tools. Dhokla’s Malphite, Inspired’s Xin Zhao, Saint’s Annie and Isles’s Karma create layered engage and protection for Berserker’s Ezreal. Their comp can absorb Jayce poke, punish an overextended Jarvan IV engage, and scale into organized objective fights.

Key Picks and Stats

The top lane is the draft’s swing point. Jayce has a 46.8% global WR over 853G and a 42.4% LCS WR over 33G, while Srtty has a 0.0% WR on Jayce over 2G with a 1.9 KDA. The matchup data favors Jayce at 63.6% over 22G against Malphite, but Dhokla’s Malphite has a 60.0% LCS WR over 10G and his own 100.0% WR over 1G.

Mid is far clearer for LYON. Callme’s Ryze has a 41.7% LCS WR over 60G, a 25.0% WR over 8G, and a 1.4 KDA; Ryze is 0.0% over 4G against Annie in LCS. Saint brings a 56.0% LCS WR over 25G on Annie, a 100.0% WR over 1G, and a 12.0 KDA, while Annie is 100.0% over 4G into Ryze.

Bot lane also leans red. sajed’s Jhin sits at 36.1% LCS WR over 36G, although his 100.0% WR over 1G and 15.0 KDA show upside. Berserker’s Ezreal posts a 59.7% LCS WR over 62G, a 75.0% WR over 8G, and an 11.7 KDA; Ezreal holds 71.4% over 7G versus Jhin in LCS.

Draft Edge

Last night’s forecast expected LYON to value Lulu, Yunara and Xin Zhao, while Disguised were projected to target Lulu, Yunara and Xin Zhao with bans. Xin Zhao did appear for Inspired, but neither Lulu nor Yunara entered this draft. The available draft record does not reveal the actual bans or B1 order, so those calls cannot be confirmed.

Jayce into Malphite is a deliberate counter-pick on matchup history, but Srtty’s personal sample makes it risky. Disguised win by creating top-side pressure and using Jarvan IV plus Nautilus engage before Annie and Malphite can dictate fights. LYON win by stabilizing lanes, protecting Berserker, and forcing front-to-back objectives.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket prices Game 1 at 12% for Disguised and 88% for LYON (2024 American Team). The current series market is even harsher at 6% and 94%, respectively, making the market 6 percentage points more optimistic about Disguised in this individual game than in the series.

No series pre-match price was supplied, so a movement from pre-match to now cannot be measured. Still, the Game 1 discount reflects Disguised’s Jayce-versus-Malphite lane angle, while the series price respects LYON’s 0.800 team-form signal, 0.905 Elo signal, and stronger red-side carry structure.

Prediction

The model’s 12%–88% projection is justified, and the draft does not warrant a major adjustment: LYON (2024 American Team) remain around 87% to win. Disguised’s realistic path is Srtty converting Jayce’s favorable matchup data into plates and early objectives; otherwise LYON’s form, Saint’s Annie control, and Berserker’s Ezreal profile should take over.

FAQ

A: Jayce has a 63.6% WR over 22G against Malphite, but Srtty’s 0.0% WR over 2G on Jayce and 1.9 KDA make execution far less certain than the matchup baseline.

A: Berserker’s Ezreal has a 59.7% LCS WR over 62G and a 71.4% WR over 7G versus Jhin, while Saint’s Annie is 100.0% over 4G into Ryze in LCS.

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*