Team Secret Whales’ Qiyana gamble defines LCP Game 2

TL;DR: In LCP Game 2, Team Secret Whales enter as a 77% draft-model favorite over Fukuoka SoftBank HAWKS gaming at 23%, but the draft revolves around Hizto’s Qiyana: the pick sits at just 33.3% WR in 9G in LCP, yet owns a 60.0% win rate into Naafiri over 5G.

Team Secret Whales are clearly betting that Hizto’s Qiyana can turn a shaky league-level trend into a targeted answer against Van1’s Naafiri. It is not a standard safety-first draft choice: if Qiyana gets first move with Dire’s Anivia and attacks side lanes early, the pick can crack the map before HAWKS’ more stable red-side core gets to scale through Aria’s Ryze and Vsta’s Shen.

Compositions: Team Secret Whales vs Fukuoka SoftBank HAWKS gaming

Team Secret Whales drafted a volatile skirmish-and-pick composition with Pun on Olaf, Hizto on Qiyana, Dire on Anivia, Eddie on Taliyah, and Bie on Camille. This setup wants fast river control, mid-jungle collapses, and side-lane pressure; Olaf and Qiyana are strongest when fights begin on their terms, while Taliyah and Anivia punish choke points and cut off escapes. Camille support adds engage angles, but it also makes execution narrower.

Fukuoka SoftBank HAWKS gaming answered with a more conventional front-to-back and cross-map package: Evi on Renekton, Van1 on Naafiri, Aria on Ryze, Marble on Jhin, and Vsta on Shen. Their comp has cleaner point-and-click setup, stronger global pressure through Ryze and Shen, and simpler mid-game side control. If they survive early tempo loss, their engage tools are easier to pilot.

Compared with last night’s pre-draft read, the predicted B1 picks were not confirmed: Team Secret Whales did not first-rotate Ryze, and HAWKS did not land the expected Rumble opener. Without the ban list, the safest conclusion is that the board changed enough to push both teams off those forecasted starts, with Qiyana becoming the real swing pick.

Key Picks and Stats

Start top lane: Pun’s Olaf brings a 55.3% global WR over 114G, a 75.0% LCP WR over 8G, and Pun himself is 100.0% on Olaf in 4G with a 3.4 KDA. The matchup is less clean, though: Olaf is only 42.9% globally into Renekton over 14G, while Evi’s Renekton has a 49.5% global WR over 721G and 39.0% in LCP over 41G. Evi is just 25.0% on the champion in 4G, so this lane is more about champion interaction than player comfort.

The draft’s center is jungle-mid. Hizto’s Qiyana has a 52.8% global WR over 159G, but only 33.3% in LCP over 9G; still, Qiyana is 60.0% into Naafiri over 5G, and Hizto is 100.0% on the pick in 1G with a 5.0 KDA. Van1’s Naafiri is the sturdier local profile at 61.5% WR in LCP over 26G, with Van1 at 66.7% in 3G and a 6.0 KDA. That is the surprise of the draft: Team Secret Whales are challenging HAWKS’ comfort with a sharp counter window rather than broad meta safety.

Mid lane slightly favors HAWKS on paper. Dire’s Anivia holds a 53.5% global WR over 469G, but only 37.5% in LCP over 16G, and Dire is 0.0% in 1G on it. Aria’s Ryze sits at 52.2% global over 1105G, 64.8% in LCP over 54G, and Aria himself is 80.0% in 5G with a 9.3 KDA. Ryze is also 51.6% globally and 60.0% in LCP into Anivia.

Draft Edge

Even with those red-side comfort pockets, I still lean Team Secret Whales from the draft because blue side assembled more ways to force first contact. Olaf-Qiyana-Anivia-Taliyah can snowball one won river fight into dragons, towers, and side pressure very quickly. HAWKS’ best route is to absorb the first 12-15 minutes, then use Shen and Ryze to punish overextended side lanes and make Jhin’s follow-up matter.

The support matchup matters here too: Bie’s Camille is only 20.0% WR in LCP over 5G, but Camille is 55.0% globally into Shen over 20G, while Vsta’s Shen is 60.0% in LCP over 10G. That is another execution-heavy trade by Team Secret Whales: lower baseline reliability for more proactive engage.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket is strongly aligned with the model on Game 2: Team Secret Whales 80%, Fukuoka SoftBank HAWKS gaming 20%. The series market is even more aggressive right now at 94% to 6%, up from 78% to 22% pre-match. Based on those listed odds, the series price has moved 16 percentage points toward Team Secret Whales.

That gap between the Game 2 market (80%) and the live series market (94%) makes sense after Game 1. Team Secret Whales already won the opener 17-2 in 30:12, so the series price reflects both current draft strength and the cushion of already being ahead. Polymarket is effectively saying this draft is good for Team Secret Whales, but their overall series position is even safer than this single map.

Prediction

The model calls this 77% for Team Secret Whales against 23% for Fukuoka SoftBank HAWKS gaming, and I would nudge it slightly to 79-21. The reasons are Pun’s elite local Olaf profile, the blue-side ability to force tempo, and the momentum from a crushing Game 1.

The main upset paths are still obvious: Aria’s Ryze is the cleanest scaling control piece in the draft, and if Hizto’s Qiyana falls behind early, Team Secret Whales lose much of the surprise value that makes this composition scary.

FAQ

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*