LCK: DRX Bet on Sivir Into Jhin Against Nongshim RF

TL;DR: In LCK Game 2, KIWOOM DRX draft into NONGSHIM RED FORCE with a 65% to 35% model edge, and the defining number is bot lane: Sivir holds a 70.4% global WR over 27G into Jhin, yet LazyFeel has played Sivir only 1 time in the LCK.

DRX are clearly trying to turn that bot-lane number into the center of the game rather than a side detail. The Sivir pick is not just a textbook answer into Jhin; it asks LazyFeel and Andil to survive lane cleanly, unlock wave control, and let Willer’s Skarner and Ucal’s Cassiopeia drag Nongshim into long front-to-back fights.

Compositions: KIWOOM DRX vs NONGSHIM RED FORCE

KIWOOM DRX drafted a classic engage-and-scaling teamfight setup: Frog on Ambessa, Willer on Skarner, Ucal on Cassiopeia, LazyFeel on Sivir, and Andil on Nautilus. This comp wants early access to river through Skarner and Nautilus, then mid-game objective control where Cassiopeia and Sivir can punish short-range entries from Lee Sin and Leona. It is less about split-push and more about forcing grouped fights on two items.

NONGSHIM RED FORCE answer with skirmish pressure and pick tools: Kingen on Zaahen, Sponge on Lee Sin, Scout on Syndra, Diable on Jhin, and Lehends on Leona. Their early game is sharper if Lee Sin gets first move with Syndra mid priority, and their best windows come before DRX’s carries fully scale. In longer 5v5s, however, Jhin can struggle into Sivir’s waveclear and movement speed if Nongshim do not snowball first.

Key Picks and Stats

Top lane leans Nongshim. Frog’s Ambessa sits at a 48.1% global WR over 882G and 41.7% in LCK over 72G, while Kingen’s Zaahen is at 53.4% global over 378G and 61.8% in LCK over 34G. The direct matchup also favors Zaahen: Ambessa is 43.8% global over 64G and 33.3% in LCK over 6G into it. Kingen’s own Zaahen sample is strong too at 66.7% over 3G with a 4.8 KDA.

Jungle is where DRX recover ground. Willer’s Skarner has a 51.7% global WR over 298G and an excellent 62.5% in LCK over 16G, versus Sponge’s Lee Sin at 57.2% global over 449G and 57.1% in LCK over 49G. The matchup is nearly even, but Willer’s champion does more for structured objective fights, which suits the rest of DRX’s draft.

Mid lane is a subtle DRX edge in the matchup despite some player risk. Ucal’s Cassiopeia owns a 54.9% global WR over 430G and 53.1% over 32G into Syndra, while Scout’s Syndra is only 46.9% over 32G into Cassiopeia. The catch is Ucal himself is just 25.0% over 4G on Cassiopeia in LCK, with a 4.4 KDA.

Bot lane is the surprise and the reason the model stays with DRX. Sivir has a 54.0% global WR over 506G, 61.5% in LCK over 39G, and a huge 70.4% global over 27G into Jhin. Diable’s Jhin, by contrast, is 44.1% global over 635G and only 29.6% over 27G into Sivir. Still, LazyFeel’s personal Sivir sample is fragile: 0.0% over 1G with a 1.3 KDA. Support trends push back the other way, with Andil’s Nautilus at 33.3% over 9G and Lehends’ Leona at 75.0% over 4G.

Draft Edge

Last night’s pre-draft read was not confirmed on the headline picks. DRX were expected to prioritize Orianna or fall back to Gnar, while Nongshim were projected toward Vi or Rumble; none of those anchors appeared. That makes Sivir the real pivot point of this draft, and it is a deliberate deviation rather than a default meta script.

Even with losing indicators top and some support risk, DRX come out ahead because their composition is easier to execute after lane phase. Skarner plus Nautilus gives dependable engage, Cassiopeia punishes melee entries, and Sivir stabilizes Jhin lanes that often become awkward later. Nongshim’s win condition is more demanding: Kingen and Sponge need to create enough tempo that Scout and Diable can play on vision denial before DRX stack dragons and front-to-back setups.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket is much colder on DRX than the model: KIWOOM DRX 38% vs NONGSHIM RED FORCE 62% for Game 2, while the pre-match series market was KIWOOM DRX 54% vs NONGSHIM RED FORCE 46%. That is a 16 percentage point move toward Nongshim on the game price relative to the earlier series number.

Some of that move is easy to explain. Nongshim already won Game 1 by 28-13 kills in 27:30, so live confidence and momentum should lean red side. Yet the gap between the market and the draft model suggests traders are weighting Game 1 form, player comfort, and side-neutral strength more heavily than this specific draft, especially because LazyFeel’s Sivir and Ucal’s Cassiopeia both come with thin or weak personal LCK samples.

Prediction

The model says KIWOOM DRX 65% to 35%, and I would trim that slightly to 61% to 39%. The draft itself still favors DRX, but Nongshim carry the better recent context after Game 1, and DRX’s edge depends on two uncomfortable personal picks actually converting their strong champion-vs-champion numbers on stage.

FAQ

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*