Dplus Kia vs T1 LCK: Qiyana Risk Shapes the Game 2 Draft

TL;DR: In LCK Game 2, Dplus Kia hold a 51% to 49% draft-model edge over T1, but Oner’s Qiyana is the defining gamble: T1 have won only 22.2% of LCK games on her across 9G, while Jarvan IV has posted 64.7% across 52G.

T1 have put Oner on Qiyana into Lucid’s Jarvan IV despite the stark LCK sample gap, betting that her assassin pressure can break Dplus Kia’s grouped backline before Lulu shields take over. It looks deliberate rather than ban-forced, but Qiyana must find early river control, flank angles and resets; a stable front-to-back game sharply favors Dplus Kia.

Compositions: Dplus Kia vs T1

Dplus Kia drafted a dependable engage-and-scaling shell. Siwoo’s K'Sante and Lucid’s Jarvan IV create the engage, while ShowMaker’s Ryze can roam with Realm Warp and Smash’s Ashe supplies pick threat, poke and reliable initiation. Career’s Lulu turns Ashe or Ryze into the carry during extended fights. Their preferred script is controlled early objectives, a mid-game snowball through Jarvan IV engages, then front-to-back teamfights.

T1 are more volatile. Doran’s Jayce and Peyz’s Mel provide poke, Faker’s Anivia supplies zone control and scaling, Keria’s Alistar is the primary engage, and Oner’s Qiyana needs skirmish chaos. T1 want Jayce and Mel to soften targets before Anivia walls off exits, letting Qiyana flank. If they cannot create side-angle threats, their composition can struggle to enter Dplus Kia’s Lulu-protected formation.

Key Picks and Stats

Top lane is a split signal. K'Sante owns a 45.9% global WR in 1148G and 50.0% LCK WR in 90G, but Siwoo has a 76.9% LCK WR in 13G with a 2.9 KDA. Doran’s Jayce is weaker at 47.0% globally in 849G and 43.6% in LCK across 101G, yet Doran has a 78.6% LCK WR in 14G and a 3.2 KDA. Jayce’s 56.5% LCK WR versus K'Sante in 23G gives T1 a real lane-poke route.

The jungle matchup is the draft’s risk point. Jarvan IV has a 51.6% global WR in 1426G, a 52.1% LCK WR in 146G, and Lucid owns 66.7% in 27G with a 3.6 KDA. Qiyana has a 55.8% global WR in 242G, but only 22.2% in LCK across 9G; Oner’s 100.0% in 1G and 5.5 KDA are far too small to erase that warning.

ShowMaker’s Ryze brings a 51.1% global WR in 1426G, 55.6% in LCK over 144G, and his 66.7% mark in 12G with a 3.4 KDA. Faker’s Anivia has 52.3% globally in 593G, a +41.7pp meta surge this patch in 6G, but only 44.4% in LCK across 63G. Bot lane leans Dplus Kia: Ashe has 60.0% LCK WR in 70G and 66.7% versus Mel in 6G, while Mel has only 33.3% versus Ashe in 6G.

Draft Edge

Dplus Kia have the clearer draft edge because Jarvan IV, Ashe and Lulu make execution simpler while Ryze can punish Anivia’s immobility. T1’s win condition is poke into terrain control, then a Qiyana flank before Lulu can reset the fight. Doran’s Jayce lane edge and Faker’s 69.2% Anivia record in 13G keep this close.

Last night’s forecast expected T1 to value Vi, Jayce, Xin Zhao and Anivia, and Doran’s Jayce plus Faker’s Anivia confirmed part of that read. The expected Jarvan IV priority also arrived for Dplus Kia, while Qiyana—not among the central forecasted priorities—is the sharp departure. Game 1’s 14-7 T1 win in 42:50 adds momentum, but its long duration also suggests Dplus Kia can survive into their scaling window.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket prices Game 2 at Dplus Kia 48% and T1 52%, directly opposing the model’s narrow Dplus Kia lean. The Series Now market is Dplus Kia 30% and T1 70%, versus 42% and 58% pre-match: Dplus Kia gained +28.0 percentage points from pre-match to now, a substantial improvement despite still trailing.

The market is more optimistic about Dplus Kia in this individual game than in the overall series: 48% for Game 2 versus 30% for the series. That gap reflects T1’s Game 1 win and superior series outlook, while acknowledging that Dplus Kia’s Jarvan IV-Ashe-Lulu structure is more stable than T1’s Qiyana-dependent draft.

Prediction

The model calls Dplus Kia 51% to T1 49%. I would keep that number rather than move aggressively: Dplus Kia’s 0.600 team-form signal and stronger champion/matchup inputs offset T1’s 0.628 head-to-head signal, 0.619 season WR and Game 1 mental advantage. Oner’s early pathing decides whether the Qiyana gamble turns T1’s market edge into a win.

FAQ

A: Yes, but T1 need early skirmishes; Qiyana’s 22.2% LCK WR in 9G contrasts with Jarvan IV’s 64.7% in 52G.

A: Smash’s Ashe has a 66.7% LCK WR versus Mel in 6G, while Peyz’s Mel has only 33.3% in that matchup, and Career’s Lulu has a 5.6 KDA.

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*