DN SOOPers vs Nongshim: Vayne Tests LCK Draft Edge

TL;DR: In LCK Game 2, DN SOOPers face NONGSHIM RED FORCE with the draft model favoring NONGSHIM RED FORCE 70% to 30%; the most citable draft fact is DuDu’s Vayne holding a 62.2% global WR over 45G against Gnar, giving DN a real top-side counter-pick.

Compositions: DN SOOPers vs NONGSHIM RED FORCE

DN SOOPers drafted a skirmish-heavy composition around DuDu’s Vayne, Sharvel’s Lee Sin, Clozer’s Cassiopeia, deokdam’s Jhin, and Peter’s Alistar. Vayne creates a split-push and side-lane scaling threat, while Lee Sin and Alistar need early engage windows to protect Cassiopeia’s sustained damage. Jhin adds poke and pick potential, but DN’s bot lane lacks a consistent front-to-back carry profile.

NONGSHIM RED FORCE answer with Kingen on Gnar, Sponge on Pantheon, Scout on Orianna, Diable on Varus, and Lehends on Shen. This is a more conventional teamfight draft: Pantheon and Shen can create cross-map engage, Orianna supplies scaling and Shockwave follow-up, and Varus offers poke before objectives. Nongshim want controlled early ganks, then decisive engage around dragons and barons.

Key Picks and Stats

DuDu’s Vayne is the sharpest counter-pick. Vayne has a 56.7% global WR over 180G and a 73.3% LCK WR over 15G, while her 62.2% global WR over 45G against Gnar gives DN a credible side-lane route. Kingen’s Gnar is still meta-safe at a 55.9% global WR over 945G and 59.3% in LCK over 91G, but his 37.8% global WR over 45G versus Vayne is a warning.

Sharvel’s Lee Sin brings a 55.6% global WR over 543G and 59.4% LCK WR over 64G, plus a 100.0% LCK WR over 1G and 14.0 KDA personally. Sponge’s Pantheon is much weaker: a 46.9% global WR over 931G, 49.0% LCK WR over 100G, and a 28.6% LCK WR over 14G with 2.5 KDA. Lee Sin’s 56.1% global WR over 41G against Pantheon further favors DN’s early jungle skirmishes.

Mid is volatile. Clozer’s Cassiopeia has a 54.7% global WR over 519G and 55.3% in LCK over 47G, but his personal 25.0% LCK WR over 8G with 4.6 KDA is concerning. Scout’s Orianna has a 51.8% global WR over 755G, a 51.7% LCK WR over 60G, and a 60.0% personal LCK WR over 5G with 7.9 KDA.

Draft Edge

Nongshim retain the overall draft edge because Shen, Pantheon, and Orianna create more reliable engage and objective setups than DN’s execution-dependent composition. Lehends’ Shen is especially dangerous at a 68.0% LCK WR over 25G and 100.0% over 3G against Alistar.

Still, DN have defined win conditions: Sharvel must gank top before Gnar reaches safe teamfight scaling, while Vayne pressures Kingen in a split-push. The surprise is Orianna appearing after last night’s analysis listed her as a mandatory ban for both teams. The predicted Nongshim B1 Jarvan IV was not confirmed because the actual pick order is unavailable, and the supplied draft does not include ban information.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket prices Game 2 at DN SOOPers 36% and NONGSHIM RED FORCE 64%, making it the most important external signal and notably less bearish on DN than the model’s 30% to 70%. The pre-match series market was DN 28% and Nongshim 72%; no current series price is supplied, so the series movement cannot be quantified.

The Game market is 8 percentage points more optimistic for DN than the pre-match series market. That reflects Game 1 momentum after DN’s 13-8 win in 36:00 and the Vayne-versus-Gnar lane angle, even as Nongshim’s red-side engage and superior wider form remain persuasive.

Prediction

The model remains at DN SOOPers 30% and NONGSHIM RED FORCE 70%. I would move DN slightly to 33% because of DuDu’s Vayne matchup and Sharvel’s Lee Sin edge over Sponge’s Pantheon, but not further: Nongshim lead team form 0.600 to 0.300, head-to-head 0.598 to 0.402, and Elo 0.781 to 0.219. Game 1 can boost DN’s confidence, yet it also raises the pressure on their fragile bot-side lanes.

FAQ

A: Yes, Vayne’s 62.2% global WR over 45G versus Gnar is DN’s clearest lane advantage, but DuDu must convert it into side-lane pressure before Nongshim force grouped fights.

A: Sponge has only a 28.6% LCK WR over 14G and 2.5 KDA on Pantheon, but Scout’s Orianna has a 60.0% LCK WR over 5G with 7.9 KDA and Lehends’ Shen provides dependable global engage.

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*