Dplus Kia vs Karmine Corp EWC: Anivia draft flips Game 2

Compositions

Dplus Kia draft a lane-led setup with clear early pressure on bot side and straightforward engage. Siwoo on Gnar, Lucid on Jarvan IV, ShowMaker on Cassiopeia, Smash on Caitlyn, and Career on Lux give Dplus Kia strong push, poke, and catch potential, especially if Caitlyn-Lux secures plates and Jarvan IV converts first move into dragons. In mid game, their best fights come from Jarvan IV starting and Cassiopeia punishing anyone trapped inside Cataclysm. The risk is that this comp is less forgiving if it loses tempo and has to walk into Anivia control.

Karmine Corp answer with a more elastic draft. Canna on Olaf gives side-lane pressure and anti-CC value, Yike on Naafiri adds skirmish burst and backline access, kyeahoo on Anivia supplies scaling and zone control, while Caliste on Ezreal plus Busio on Bard bring safe poke and roam windows. This is not a pure hard-engage composition; it wins by stretching fights, controlling choke points, and letting Anivia reshape objectives. Relative to last night’s pre-draft analysis, Karmine Corp again show the wider menu: engage through Naafiri-Bard timings, scaling through Anivia-Ezreal, and a top pick in Olaf that can function without heavy resources.

Key Picks and Stats

Lucid’s Jarvan IV is the most direct confirmation of the pre-draft read. Dplus Kia’s highest-value routes were said to be concentrated around Jarvan IV, and Lucid is 100.0% over 2G on it at Esports World Cup with a 5.7 KDA. The matchup data is less friendly: Jarvan IV vs Naafiri is 44.1% over 59G globally and 37.5% over 8G at Esports World Cup, while Yike’s Naafiri sits at 50.0% over 4G with a 3.0 KDA.

Mid is where the draft tilts strategically. ShowMaker’s Cassiopeia is 75.0% over 4G with a 4.8 KDA, and the champion is 56.5% over 46G at Esports World Cup this season. Yet Anivia into Cassiopeia is one of Karmine Corp’s cleanest scaling answers: kyeahoo is 100.0% over 3G on Anivia with a 9.3 KDA, and Anivia vs Cassiopeia is 52.3% over 44G globally even if the Esports World Cup sample is 37.5% over 8G.

Bot lane is Dplus Kia’s clearest statistical edge. Smash’s Caitlyn is 66.7% over 3G, and Caitlyn vs Ezreal is 55.7% over 115G globally and 70.0% over 10G at Esports World Cup. Career’s Lux is only a 2G player sample here, but Lux carries 66.0% over 47G globally this season. On the other side, Caliste’s Ezreal is just 49.1% over 1083G globally and 44.3% over 115G into Caitlyn. Busio’s Bard is dangerous because of map movement, though Bard vs Lux is 0.0% over 2G in the tiny direct sample.

Top lane is more volatile than the model average suggests. Siwoo’s Gnar is 100.0% over 1G, but Gnar vs Olaf is 55.6% over 9G globally while the Esports World Cup matchup sample flips to 33.3% over 3G. Canna’s Olaf can punish side lanes hard if Jarvan IV does not keep him down.

Draft Edge

The model starts at Dplus Kia 47% — Karmine Corp 53%, and the draft still looks slightly red-sided to me: Dplus Kia 46% — Karmine Corp 54%. Dplus Kia have the cleaner early script and the better 2v2 on paper through Caitlyn-Lux, plus Jarvan IV-Cassiopeia teamfight layering. Karmine Corp, however, own more paths back into the game. Anivia and Bard make objective setup awkward, Naafiri gives them a fast punish button onto immobile carries, and Olaf is a real side threat into a comp that wants orderly front-to-back fights.

Against the pre-draft analysis, the main confirmation is Lucid getting Jarvan IV and Dplus Kia again leaning on a support-enabled bot structure. The sharper deviation is Cassiopeia over the expected Viktor-centric direction, while Karmine Corp choosing Anivia creates the most unusual control point in the draft. The expected bans cannot be checked from the provided sheet because the ban phase is not listed.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket is the strongest outside signal here, and it disagrees with the draft model’s lean. The Game 2 market is Dplus Kia 50% — Karmine Corp 50%, while the live series market is Dplus Kia 78% — Karmine Corp 22%. Pre-match, that same series market was Dplus Kia 64% — Karmine Corp 36%, so the series moved 14 percentage points toward Dplus Kia after Game 1.

That split matters. The market is much more optimistic on Dplus Kia in the series than in this specific game, which makes sense after a 34:50 Game 1 win despite the 10-16 kill line. In other words, traders respect Dplus Kia’s series position but see this draft as much closer. That fits the board: Dplus Kia drafted stronger early lanes, yet Karmine Corp found a more resilient scaling and zone-control setup for one map.

Prediction

Game state and series context pull in opposite directions. Dplus Kia have momentum from winning Game 1, and both teams rate 0.800 in team form, but Karmine Corp’s draft is the one with more comeback geometry if lanes go even. My final call stays close to the model and lands at Karmine Corp 54%, Dplus Kia 46% for Game 2. If Smash and Career snowball bot exactly on schedule, that flips quickly; if kyeahoo reaches two-item Anivia on time, Karmine Corp’s map control should take over.