Anubis Gaming vs TLN Pirates: Jhin’s Risky Draft

TL;DR: Anubis Gaming faces TLN Pirates in EMEA Masters Game 2 with the draft model giving Anubis a 57% win chance to TLN’s 43%. The defining risk is Shy Carry’s Jhin: he has a 37.5% EMEA Masters WR over 56G, while Axelent’s Ashe has a 61.6% league WR over 73G.

Jhin is a deliberate challenge to TLN’s reliable Ashe-Seraphine lane: Anubis wants Bard’s roams and Trundle’s pressure to keep Axelent from freely controlling fights with long-range engage. If TLN stabilizes the lane and reaches grouped fights on its own terms, Jhin’s low league results become a glaring liability.

Compositions: Anubis Gaming vs TLN Pirates

Anubis Gaming has a pick-and-engage composition built around Ambessa, Trundle and Orianna, with Bard adding roaming catches and Jhin contributing long-range follow-up. Early, Theocacs needs to use Trundle’s pressure to contest Wukong and help Giyuu avoid being pinned down by Ahri. In mid-game, Anubis can chain a Bard catch into Orianna’s area control, then snowball a numbers advantage. The team wants decisive fights rather than a slow siege.

TLN Pirates has a more reliable toolkit for starting fights and controlling space: Ashe’s arrows, Seraphine’s follow-up and Wukong’s engage can set the pace, while Ahri looks for picks. Yorick adds a split-push threat that can pull Ambessa away from objectives. TLN’s early priority is to protect its bot-lane advantage; later, it can group for objective fights or exploit Yorick’s side-lane pressure.

Key Picks and Stats

Maged’s Ambessa has a 48.7% global WR over 1309G and 47.8% in EMEA Masters over 67G; the matchup record against Yorick is 40.0% over 20G. Spooder’s Yorick is at 47.0% over 398G globally and 41.7% over 12G in the league, with a 60.0% global WR against Ambessa over 20G. That counter-pick record favors TLN, though the sample is limited.

The jungle matchup pulls the other way: Theocacs’ Trundle posts 52.8% over 417G globally and 46.7% over 30G in the league. His EMEA Masters record on Trundle is 100.0% over 1G with an 8.5 KDA. Stefan’s Wukong has a 43.2% global WR over 1027G and 47.8% over 92G in EMEA Masters; he is 32.4% against Trundle over 34G globally, but 100.0% over 2G in the league.

Giyuu’s Orianna is 51.2% over 1072G globally and 42.9% over 49G in EMEA Masters. Toffe’s Ahri answers with 54.0% over 897G and 55.7% over 79G, plus a 100.0% league record against Orianna over 3G. At bot, Shy Carry’s Jhin is 44.8% over 987G globally and 37.5% over 56G in the league; Axelent’s Ashe is 55.9% over 864G and 61.6% over 73G. Ashe’s global record against Jhin is 62.5% over 80G. B Butcher’s Bard is 56.6% over 83G in the league, but just 14.3% against Seraphine over 14G; Thomas’s Seraphine is 62.2% over 74G in EMEA Masters.

Draft Edge

The model narrowly favors Anubis, but TLN has the cleaner lane matchups and stronger bot-side evidence. Anubis’s route to victory is to make Trundle’s early pressure count, use Bard to create uneven fights, and land Orianna follow-up before Ashe and Seraphine control the engagement. TLN can blunt that plan with its stronger bot lane and Yorick’s side-lane pressure.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket gives TLN Pirates 64% and Anubis Gaming 36% in the Game 2 market. The Series Now market instead favors Anubis, 57% to TLN’s 43%. No Series Pre-Match odds were provided, so the direction or size of any series-market movement cannot be established. For this game specifically, the market is 28 percentage points more optimistic about TLN than the series market is.

That gap fits the draft’s immediate matchup advantage: Ashe and Seraphine have strong league results, and their head-to-head records against Jhin and Bard are favorable. The opposing signal is the series result: Anubis won Game 1, 4-30 in kills over 41:40, which helps explain why its Series Now price is stronger than its Game 2 price.

Prediction

The model’s starting point is Anubis Gaming 57% to TLN Pirates 43%, but the Jhin matchup and the market’s strong TLN Game 2 lean justify a modest adjustment: Anubis 54%, TLN 46%. Anubis’s 0.700 team-form signal and Game 1 win support its side; TLN’s 0.586 Elo signal and bot-lane edge keep the game close. The first bot-lane rotations may decide whether Jhin gets room to contribute.

FAQ

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*