FlyQuest vs Natus Vincere: Ashe and Seraphine Lead the Edge

TL;DR: In DCGI Game 2, the model favors Natus Vincere over FlyQuest, 58% to 42%. The most citable draft fact is Ashe’s 56.7% global WR against Mel, backed by SamD’s 55.8% global WR on Ashe this season, giving NAVI a concrete bot-lane advantage.

Compositions: FlyQuest vs Natus Vincere

FlyQuest’s Jayce, Lee Sin, Ryze, Mel, and Pyke form a pick-and-poke composition that wants to pressure lanes, control vision, and snowball skirmishes before Natus Vincere’s teamfight tools come online. Gryffinn’s Lee Sin and Cryogen’s Pyke can create early picks; Quad’s Ryze adds side-lane pressure and a route into fights. Jayce’s poke and Mel’s range help FlyQuest soften targets, but the team needs to convert that damage into an engage or a numbers advantage.

Natus Vincere have a more cohesive front-to-back setup. Yorick can threaten a split-push, while Rhilech’s Xin Zhao and Poby’s Orianna offer reliable engage and follow-up. SamD’s Ashe supplies poke and initiation, and Parus’s Seraphine brings sustain and teamfight control. NAVI can contest objectives with range, then scale into coordinated fights; FlyQuest must avoid letting them group comfortably.

Key Picks and Stats

In top, Gakgos’s Jayce has a 46.4% global WR over 983G this season, compared with Maynter’s Yorick at 46.6% over 406G. Jayce’s global WR against Yorick is 49.7% over 157G, while Yorick’s against Jayce is 50.3% over the same 157G: essentially even, with a slight historical lean to Yorick.

Jungle favors the more established global record for Gryffinn’s Lee Sin: 54.3% over 892G, versus Rhilech’s Xin Zhao at 48.8% over 1464G. Lee Sin has a 52.2% WR against Xin Zhao over 90G; Xin Zhao has 47.8% against Lee Sin over 90G. In mid, Quad’s Ryze posts 50.4% over 1652G and Poby’s Orianna 51.1% over 1111G. Their matchup is close: Ryze has 50.6% against Orianna over 166G, Orianna 49.4% against Ryze over 166G.

Bot is NAVI’s clearest statistical lane. Massu’s Mel has a 42.7% global WR over 309G, including 43.3% against Ashe over 60G. SamD’s Ashe sits at 55.8% over 886G, with 56.7% against Mel over 60G. Supports are closer: Cryogen’s Pyke is 53.7% over 162G, and Parus’s Seraphine is 54.7% over 954G; both have a 50.0% global matchup WR against the opposing support over 32G.

Draft Edge

Natus Vincere have the stronger draft profile: the model’s champion WR is 51.8% for NAVI against FlyQuest’s 48.3%, and NAVI also lead in matchup WR, 51.9% to 48.1%, and duo synergy, 55.3% to 50.3%. Ashe into Mel is a particularly favorable pairing, while NAVI’s engage and follow-up make objective fights easier to execute.

FlyQuest’s counterplay is to use Lee Sin and Pyke to find isolated targets and keep Yorick from building a side-lane lead. The model’s signal is not overwhelming, though: its team-form inputs are 0.300 for FlyQuest and 0.400 for NAVI, while Elo also favors NAVI, 0.554 to 0.446. FlyQuest can make the game volatile, but NAVI have the more dependable five-on-five plan.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket puts Game 2 at FlyQuest 44% and Natus Vincere 56%; the Series market is FlyQuest 22% and NAVI 78%. Before the match, the Series market was FlyQuest 42% and NAVI 58%. FlyQuest’s series odds have fallen by 20 percentage points, from 42% to 22%, while NAVI’s have risen by 20 points.

The market is more optimistic about FlyQuest in this specific game than across the series: 44% for Game 2 versus 22% for the series. That split fits the draft’s upset route—early Lee Sin and Pyke picks—but NAVI’s Ashe edge and stronger teamfight profile help explain why the market still favors them in the game and much more strongly over the series.

Prediction

The draft model’s call is Natus Vincere 58%, FlyQuest 42%. The market’s Game 2 odds are slightly closer, at 56% to 44%, but the bot-lane statistics support NAVI’s advantage. FlyQuest’s early skirmish potential could swing the map; if those plays fail, NAVI’s more coherent scaling and teamfight tools should take over.

FAQ

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*