BNK FEARX vs kt Rolster: Renata Surprise in LCK DCGI

TL;DR: BNK FEARX and kt Rolster enter LCK DCGI Game 2 with the model giving kt a 53% edge to BNK’s 47%. The draft’s clearest talking point is BNK’s Renata Glasc: the opposing team has a 66% win rate against her in 41 games, making Kellin’s pick a high-stakes test into Effort’s Rakan.

Compositions: BNK FEARX vs kt Rolster

That 66% figure gives kt Rolster a clear target: Effort can look to force fights with Rakan while denying Renata Glasc the space to disrupt an engage. BNK FEARX may have chosen Renata for her ability to turn those all-ins around, but Kellin needs to time her response well and protect Kalista through the first burst.

BNK’s Renekton, Jarvan IV, and Sylas offer skirmish pressure and layered engage, with Kalista and Renata adding follow-up and counter-engage. The early game favors finding fights around Raptor’s Jarvan IV and VicLa’s Sylas; later, BNK need clean initiation before Xayah can take over. kt’s Gnar and Nocturne can threaten a coordinated dive, while Taliyah adds pick potential and Rakan supplies reliable engage. kt can snowball early picks, then use Gnar’s teamfight control and Xayah’s scaling to close.

Key Picks and Stats

At top, BFXClear’s Renekton has a 50.4% global WR over 957G this season and 46.7% over 195G against Gnar. KTPerfecT’s Gnar posts 54.2% over 1,251G and 53.3% against Renekton over 195G. That head-to-head leans toward Gnar, despite the model’s Renekton matchup record of 51.37% in 21 games.

In the jungle, BFXRaptor’s Jarvan IV is at 50.4% over 1,664G, including 54.5% against Nocturne in 121G. KTCuzz’s Nocturne has 48.9% over 839G and 45.5% against Jarvan IV in 121G. The matchup numbers favor Raptor, though the model’s champion sample for Jarvan IV has zero games, so that estimate is especially uncertain.

Mid lane is close: BFXVicLa’s Sylas has a 47.6% global WR over 403G and 53.3% against Taliyah in 15G; KTBdd’s Taliyah is at 47.5% over 684G and 46.7% against Sylas in 15G. Bot lane tilts toward kt: KTJiwoo’s Xayah has 55.5% over 425G and 55.2% against Kalista in 29G, while BFXTaeyoon’s Kalista has 51.4% over 352G and 44.8% against Xayah in 29G. Support is the sharpest contrast: BFXKellin’s Renata Glasc is 50.9% over 346G, but only 34.1% against Rakan in 41G; KTEffort’s Rakan has 52.9% over 748G and 65.9% against Renata in 41G.

The pre-draft read expected bans on Renekton, Pantheon, and Lucian from kt, and Jarvan IV, Seraphine, and Yunara from BNK; it also flagged Cassiopeia or Lucian as possible early priorities. The final draft instead features Renekton and Jarvan IV, with neither predicted B1 pick appearing. Renata into Rakan is the notable surprise. No bans are provided, so the predicted ban calls cannot be confirmed.

Draft Edge

kt has the stronger overall draft case: the model’s duo-synergy signal is 0.549 to BNK’s 0.451, and Xayah–Rakan pairing data shows a 55.34% WR across an effective 83.17 games. BNK’s best route is to use Jarvan IV and Sylas to create early skirmishes and exploit their favorable jungle and mid matchup numbers before Xayah scales.

Polymarket Market

The real-money Game 2 market gives BNK FEARX 46% and kt Rolster 55%; the Series market is BNK 62% and kt 38%. Before the match, Series odds stood at BNK 42% and kt 58%, a 20.0 percentage-point move toward BNK. That is a substantial reversal in the series outlook, while the Game 2 price is more optimistic about kt than the current Series price is. The market may be weighing kt’s bot-lane and support matchup edge against BNK’s 1-0 lead after taking Game 1, which ended 8-22 in kills at 31:00.

Prediction

The model’s call is BNK FEARX 47% to kt Rolster 53%. kt’s Xayah–Rakan edge supports that narrow favorite status, but BNK’s Game 1 win and the market’s series shift toward them make this less secure than the draft alone suggests. The model lists equal team-form scores of 0.600, so the series result is the clearest contextual factor here.

FAQ

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*