Vivo Keyd Stars vs Leviatan: Gnar Risk in CBLOL

TL;DR: Vivo Keyd Stars are 68% favorites over Leviatan in CBLOL Game 2, while Polymarket prices them at 82%. The draft’s defining call is zekas on Gnar: the champion holds only a 34.1% CBLOL WR over 41G, and zekas has just 2G on it in the league.

Vivo Keyd Stars have chosen Gnar not as a comfort-lock, but as a volatile side-lane and teamfight tool against Devost’s Twisted Fate. The pick needs zekas to survive early pressure, build Mega Gnar timing around objectives, and prevent Leviatan’s global-map composition from creating isolated targets.

Compositions: Vivo Keyd Stars vs Leviatan

Vivo Keyd Stars drafted a flexible skirmish and scaling composition: zekas on Gnar supplies engage, Disamis on Lee Sin creates early gank pressure, Mireu on Ryze brings side-lane scaling, Jeskla on Corki adds poke, and scamber on Rakan gives the team a reliable engage button. Their best mid-game sequence is Lee Sin or Rakan finding an entry, followed by Ryze Realm Warp positioning Corki safely for sustained damage.

Leviatan answer with Devost on Twisted Fate, Booki on Skarner, Enga on Taliyah, Strensh on Naafiri, and Shiku on Alistar. This is a catch-heavy draft built around Skarner and Alistar engage, with Twisted Fate roam pressure and Taliyah terrain control. Strensh’s Naafiri can carry picks, but Leviatan must snowball through sidelanes before Corki and Ryze become too difficult to approach.

Key Picks and Stats

Gnar is the draft’s risk. zekas has a 50.0% CBLOL WR over 2G and a 3.9 KDA on Gnar, but the champion’s CBLOL mark is only 34.1% over 41G; against Twisted Fate, Gnar is 33.3% over 3G in CBLOL. Devost’s Twisted Fate has a 75.0% CBLOL WR over 12G and a 66.7% lane record versus Gnar over 3G, giving Leviatan a real top-side counter angle.

Jungle also favors Leviatan statistically. Disamis’s Lee Sin has a 42.1% CBLOL WR over 19G and only a 25.0% record versus Skarner over 4G, while Booki’s Skarner posts a 55.6% CBLOL WR over 18G and a 75.0% record against Lee Sin over 4G. Still, Disamis can change the game if Lee Sin finds early tempo before Skarner becomes the more dependable engage tank.

Mireu’s Ryze has a 48.5% CBLOL WR over 66G, but only a 25.0% personal CBLOL record over 4G. Enga’s Taliyah is 56.7% over 30G and has a 69.2% record versus Ryze over 13G. Bot lane offers Vivo Keyd Stars upside: Jeskla’s Corki is 100.0% over 1G with an 8.0 KDA, while scamber’s Rakan owns a 73.3% CBLOL WR over 30G. Strensh’s Naafiri is also 100.0% over 1G with an 11.0 KDA, and Shiku’s Alistar is 100.0% over 1G.

Draft Edge

Last night’s pre-draft forecast expected Leviatan to prioritize Ryze as B1 and Vivo Keyd Stars to prioritize Rumble. Neither projected priority appears in its expected place: Vivo Keyd Stars secured Ryze, while the available draft information does not include bans, so the expected Nocturne, Akali, Vi, Jarvan IV, Ryze, and Sion removals cannot be verified.

Vivo Keyd Stars retain the overall draft edge through Rakan engage, Ryze scaling, and Corki poke, but Leviatan have stronger lane-specific counters in top, jungle, and mid. Vivo Keyd Stars need controlled objective setups; Leviatan need Skarner or Alistar to force a pick before the blue-side carries scale.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket makes Vivo Keyd Stars an 82% favorite for Game 2, compared with 18% for Leviatan. The series market is even more decisive: Vivo Keyd Stars are 96% now against Leviatan’s 4%, up from 84% to 16% pre-match. That is a 12 percentage points move toward Vivo Keyd Stars in raw series win probability.

The Game 2 market is less optimistic than the series market, pricing Vivo Keyd Stars at 82% rather than 96%. That gap reflects Leviatan’s counter-lane tools in this specific draft, especially Devost’s Twisted Fate into Gnar and Booki’s Skarner into Lee Sin. Yet Game 1’s 1-15 kill win in 31:00 gives the market a strong momentum basis for expecting Vivo Keyd Stars to close the series.

Prediction

The draft model gives Vivo Keyd Stars a 68% to 32% edge. I would trim that slightly to 66% for Vivo Keyd Stars and 34% for Leviatan because Leviatan’s top-jungle-mid matchups carry credible upset paths, but their 0.200 team-form signal, 0.271 Elo signal, and Game 1 collapse remain major concerns.

FAQ

A: It is difficult statistically: Gnar has a 33.3% CBLOL record against Twisted Fate over 3G, while Devost has a 66.7% record in the matchup over 3G. zekas needs Mega Gnar objective fights rather than extended side-lane exposure.

A: Polymarket’s 82% Game 2 price heavily reflects Vivo Keyd Stars winning Game 1 by 15 kills to 1 in 31:00 and their 96% series price. The model gives more weight to Leviatan’s favorable Skarner, Taliyah, and Twisted Fate lane data.

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*