RED vs Keyd CBLOL: Risky Gnar Bet Shapes Game 3
RED Kalunga and Vivo Keyd Stars clash in CBLOL Game 3 with a risky Gnar pick, strong RED engage, and a sharp split between model and market.
Red Kalunga
TOP
VS GLB54.5%11GVS CBLOL—
JGL
VS GLB63.6%11GVS CBLOL—
MID
VS GLB47.8%23GVS CBLOL50.0%2G
BOT
VS GLB42.9%7GVS CBLOL—
SUP
VS GLB42.9%7GVS CBLOL—TL;DR: In CBLOL Game 3, RED Kalunga draft a comp the model makes 56% to 44% over Vivo Keyd Stars, but the headline is Vivo Keyd Stars trusting zekas on Gnar despite 33.3% CBLOL WR in 33G and zekas having only 1G on the pick in CBLOL.
Vivo Keyd Stars are betting this entire draft on a top-side read that has not looked comfortable locally. Putting zekas on Gnar can still make strategic sense into Olaf if red side want range, Mega Gnar engage, and side-lane control, but it asks for clean timing around Trundle pillars and Akali follow-up; otherwise RED Kalunga get the simpler fights.
Compositions: RED Kalunga vs Vivo Keyd Stars
RED Kalunga show a direct skirmish-and-engage identity: zynts on Olaf, STEPZ on Qiyana, Fuuu on Ryze, Morttheus on Mel, and frosty on Nautilus. This draft wants early river control, point-and-click setup from Nautilus, and fast side access from Ryze. In mid game, RED can snowball through Qiyana plus Nautilus picks, then let Olaf run through frontliners while Ryze and Mel add sustained damage. Their late game is less about pure scaling than about finding first contact cleanly.
Vivo Keyd Stars answer with a more conditional mix: zekas on Gnar, Disamis on Trundle, Mireu on Akali, Jeskla on Ziggs, and scamber on Maokai. The red-side plan is clearer in structure than in execution: Ziggs gives poke and objective chip, Akali threatens the back line, Trundle can isolate targets, and Gnar-Maokai offers engage if Mega Gnar timing is right. If the game slows, Ziggs helps stall and defend towers, but this composition can get awkward if Akali is forced to enter fights before poke lands.
Key Picks and Stats
Top lane is the first fault line. zynts has Olaf at 55.2% global WR over 116G, but only 50.0% in CBLOL over 4G; into Gnar, Olaf holds just 45.5% global WR over 11G. On the other side, zekas has Gnar at 55.6% global WR over 826G, yet only 33.3% in CBLOL over 33G, and his personal CBLOL sample is 0.0% over 1G with a 0.8 KDA. That makes Gnar a live risk even if the matchup table favors him at 54.5% over 11G versus Olaf.
Jungle is volatile. STEPZ on Qiyana brings 53.3% global WR over 165G and a huge 72.7% CBLOL WR over 11G, but Qiyana versus Trundle sits at only 36.4% global WR over 11G. Disamis’ Trundle is steadier at 51.6% global WR over 246G, 50.0% in CBLOL over 12G, and 63.6% over 11G into Qiyana. That is a real counter-pressure point for Vivo Keyd Stars.
Mid lane leans RED. Fuuu’s Ryze posts 52.1% global WR over 1109G, 50.9% in CBLOL over 55G, and 52.2% over 23G into Akali. Mireu’s Akali is 51.9% global WR over 405G, but only 47.1% in CBLOL over 17G and 47.8% over 23G into Ryze, with a personal 50.0% over 2G and 3.4 KDA.
Bot lane is unusual. Morttheus on Mel has only 42.2% global WR over 258G, though Mel is 57.1% over 7G into Ziggs; Morttheus is 0.0% over 1G in CBLOL with a 4.0 KDA. Jeskla’s Ziggs is 50.5% global WR over 210G and 50.0% in CBLOL over 4G, but the matchup stat is unfavorable. Support is similar: frosty’s Nautilus looks bad in league-wide CBLOL data at 26.1% over 23G, yet frosty himself is 66.7% over 3G; scamber’s Maokai sits at 33.3% over 3G in CBLOL.
Draft Edge
RED Kalunga come out slightly ahead because their win condition is easier to execute. Ryze plus Nautilus gives reliable engage angles, and STEPZ’s domestic Qiyana form is the best single player-champion number in this draft at 72.7% over 11G. Vivo Keyd Stars can absolutely win if Disamis’ Trundle disrupts Qiyana and if zekas times Mega Gnar well around Ziggs poke, but there are more moving parts.
Polymarket Market
Polymarket’s decisive-map market shows RED Kalunga 36% and Vivo Keyd Stars 64% for Game 3, and because this is a deciding map, that is also effectively the live series moneyline: Polymarket does not create a separate per-map market here. So Game and Series are the same 36/64 snapshot, just captured moments apart, not two meaningfully different prices. No series pre-match odds are provided, so there is no clean way to measure movement.
That market is far more optimistic on Vivo Keyd Stars than the draft model, likely pricing broader trust in the team over draft specifics. Still, this draft itself does not fully justify a 64% read for Keyd: the Gnar commitment carries obvious local risk, and RED’s engage is cleaner.
Prediction
The model starts at RED Kalunga 56% to Vivo Keyd Stars 44%. I would trim that slightly to RED Kalunga 54% and Vivo Keyd Stars 46% because Trundle into Qiyana is a genuine problem and deciding-map pressure can reward the more stable macro team, but RED still have the better draft logic on execution.
FAQ
Q: Why does RED Kalunga still get the edge if STEPZ on Qiyana faces a bad Trundle matchup?
Because STEPZ still brings 72.7% CBLOL WR over 11G on Qiyana, and RED’s comp gives him Nautilus and Ryze setup instead of asking him to start every fight alone.
Q: Is zekas on Gnar really that dangerous for Vivo Keyd Stars in this draft?
Yes, because the local sample is harsh: 33.3% CBLOL WR over 33G on Gnar for the champion and zekas himself at 0.0% over 1G with a 0.8 KDA, even if the global Olaf matchup number is favorable.
*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*