LØS Leona Gamble Shapes Fluxo W7M CBLOL Game 2

TL;DR: In CBLOL Game 2, Fluxo W7M face LØS with the draft model at 18% to 82%, and LØS have made the defining gamble: Ackerman’s Leona carries a 40.0% CBLOL WR in 35G against Nautilus’s 61% in 102G. LØS need that engage to start fights before Fluxo W7M’s ranged control can reset them.

Compositions: Fluxo W7M vs LØS

Fluxo W7M drafted a direct skirmish and pick composition: Zothve’s Renekton and Peach’s Aatrox want early river pressure, while cody’s Taliyah can wall off rotations for BAO’s Varus poke and Momochi’s Nautilus engage. Their cleanest route is snowballing through mid-jungle picks before Viktor and Sivir reach comfortable scaling.

LØS are built for coordinated engage into front-to-back teamfights. Zest’s Kennen and Ackerman’s Leona provide the initiation, Curse’s Pantheon can gank side lanes or join instantly, and Feisty’s Viktor plus Duduhh’s Sivir offer the late-game damage. The Leona selection is a lower-WR CBLOL answer to Nautilus, but it is deliberate if LØS can find the first engage and deny Varus space.

Key Picks and Stats

Top is more favorable for Fluxo W7M than the overall prediction suggests. Zothve’s Renekton holds a 49.2% global WR in 851G, a 50.0% CBLOL WR in 40G, and a 57.1% WR versus Kennen in 28G; his CBLOL record versus Kennen is 100.0% in 3G. Zest’s Kennen has only a 47.2% global WR in 108G, a 50.0% CBLOL WR in 8G, and a 0.0% CBLOL WR versus Renekton in 3G.

Jungle sharply reverses that lane edge. Peach’s Aatrox has a 47.9% global WR in 430G and is 0.0% versus Pantheon in 2G in CBLOL, although Peach personally owns a 57.1% WR in 7G with a 5.5 KDA. Curse’s Pantheon posts a 60.0% CBLOL WR in 40G and a 100.0% CBLOL WR versus Aatrox in 2G, despite his 25.0% WR in 4G on Pantheon.

Mid gives cody a genuine counter window: Taliyah is 56.2% in CBLOL over 32G and 66.7% versus Viktor in 3G, but cody’s own Taliyah record is 33.3% in 3G with a 4.1 KDA. Feisty’s Viktor is 59.4% in CBLOL over 32G, with a 62.5% WR in 8G and 3.9 KDA.

Bot lane is volatile. BAO’s Varus is 60.6% in CBLOL over 33G and 60.0% versus Sivir in 10G, yet BAO is 0.0% in 2G on the pick. Duduhh’s Sivir is 100.0% in 5G with a 7.2 KDA, while Ackerman’s Leona has a 60.0% WR in 5G and 7.6 KDA.

Draft Edge

Last night’s forecast expected LØS to access Ryze, Corki, Rumble, Taliyah and Alistar, while Fluxo W7M were urged to ban Ryze, Corki and Alistar. None of those projected B1 power picks appeared, and neither side landed the expected ban script. Instead, Fluxo W7M chose Renekton, Aatrox, Taliyah, Varus and Nautilus, while LØS pivoted to Kennen, Pantheon, Viktor, Sivir and Leona.

The draft edge remains with LØS because Viktor-Sivir scaling and multiple engage tools punish Fluxo W7M if their first dive fails. Fluxo W7M’s win condition is an early Renekton-Taliyah-Aatrox snowball; LØS need disciplined vision, Pantheon pressure, and a Kennen or Leona engage around objectives.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket prices Game 2 at Fluxo W7M 18% — LØS 82%, exactly matching the draft model. The current series market is Fluxo W7M 35% — LØS 65%, up from Fluxo W7M 12% — LØS 88% pre-match, a +22.5 percentage points move toward Fluxo W7M.

That makes the market substantially more optimistic about Fluxo W7M’s overall series prospects than this specific game. The Game 2 price reflects LØS’s superior form, Elo, season record, and safer scaling draft, while the series recovery suggests Fluxo W7M have already supplied a result or performance strong enough to reshape the broader best-of outlook.

Prediction

The model remains Fluxo W7M 18% — LØS 82%. Fluxo W7M’s top and mid matchup data justify only a small practical upgrade if Zothve and cody convert lane priority, but LØS’s 0.800 team-form signal, 0.856 Elo signal, and 0.613 season WR keep the red side clearly favored.

FAQ

A: Yes: Zothve has a 57.1% WR versus Kennen in 28G and 100.0% in 3G in CBLOL, so top pressure is Fluxo W7M’s most credible early lane advantage.

A: Leona’s 40.0% CBLOL WR in 35G is concerning against Nautilus’s 61% in 102G, but Ackerman’s personal 60.0% WR in 5G and 7.6 KDA indicate that LØS value his engage execution over the broader matchup trend.

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*