SU Esports vs Shark Attack: TCL Jhin Draft Surprise

TL;DR: In TCL Game 2, SU Esports face Shark Attack with the draft model favoring SU Esports 62% to 38%. Nako’s Jhin is the volatile call: he owns a 32.3% TCL WR over 31G, yet Jhin has a 65.0% global WR into Ziggs over 20G, making bot lane the citable swing.

Compositions: SU Esports vs Shark Attack

SU Esports have deliberately accepted Nako’s low league Jhin record because the pick gives their engage shell a decisive long-range follow-up. Jhin must convert Shen taunts, Nocturne darkness, and Orianna shockwaves into early picks; if Shark Attack keep distance and establish Ziggs poke, the gamble becomes much harder to justify.

IlllIma’s Renekton, RAMES’s Nocturne, Vetheo’s Orianna, Nako’s Jhin, and Patch’s Shen form a direct skirmish and teamfight composition. SU Esports want early side-lane pressure from Renekton, then coordinated engage around objectives through Nocturne-Orianna. Their scaling is respectable because Orianna and Jhin can carry structured fights, but Shen is especially valuable for turning a split-push response into a numbers advantage.

Shark Attack answer with Sangrod’s Mordekaiser, NightyNN’s Ambessa, Hades’s Caitlyn, Stansfield’s Ziggs, and Revanche’s Alistar. This is a poke-first draft with engage insurance: Caitlyn and Ziggs want siege control, while Alistar and Ambessa punish anyone who walks into their range. Mordekaiser can isolate a carry, but Shark Attack need to avoid conceding vision before their poke can soften SU Esports.

Key Picks and Stats

Top lane strongly favors IlllIma. Renekton has a 50.1% global WR over 782G and a 61.5% TCL WR over 26G, while IlllIma holds a 100.0% global WR into Mordekaiser over 4G. Sangrod’s Mordekaiser sits at 35.0% global over 20G, 50.0% TCL over 4G, and 0.0% into Renekton over 4G; Sangrod’s own TCL Mordekaiser record is 0.0% over 1G with a 0.0 KDA.

RAMES’s Nocturne is another clear pressure point. Nocturne posts 49.2% global over 642G but 63.6% TCL over 11G, and RAMES has a 75.0% TCL WR over 4G with a 7.6 KDA. NightyNN’s Ambessa has a 47.6% global WR over 1017G and 43.5% TCL over 23G, with a 0.0% TCL player record over 2G and 0.5 KDA. Ambessa’s 51.5% global WR into Nocturne over 66G offers Shark Attack a real counter-skirmish angle.

Mid lane is SU’s stable scaling lane: Vetheo’s Orianna holds 51.9% global over 781G, 72.7% TCL over 22G, and 100.0% into Caitlyn in TCL over 3G. Hades’s Caitlyn is 55.2% global over 596G and 52.4% TCL over 21G, but is 0.0% into Orianna in TCL over 3G. Bot lane remains volatile: Stansfield’s Ziggs is 48.5% global over 291G and only 35.0% into Jhin over 20G.

Draft Edge

SU Esports own the cleaner draft edge because their reliable engage attacks Shark Attack’s immobile double-poke backline. Nocturne-Orianna synergy rates 60.61% over 17.97G in the model, while Orianna-Shen reaches 61.14% over 19.97G.

Shark Attack’s win condition is disciplined siege: Caitlyn traps and Ziggs poke must force SU Esports to engage from poor angles. Alistar can start a fight, but Revanche’s 45.5% TCL WR over 22G makes that execution less certain.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket makes SU Esports the overwhelming external favorite: 86% for SU Esports versus 14% for Shark Attack in Game 2, and 96% versus 4% in the Series Now market. Series pre-match odds are not available, so no verified market movement from pre-match to now can be calculated.

The Game market is 10 percentage points less optimistic on SU Esports than the series market. That makes sense after SU’s recorded Game 1 win at 25:50 despite a 7-32 kill score: SU have the series position, but this draft’s Jhin variance and Shark Attack’s poke leave more map-specific upset risk. Even so, the market appears to value SU’s superior engage, top-lane counter-pick, and RAMES’s Nocturne form.

Prediction

The model starts at SU Esports 62% to Shark Attack 38%; the lane evidence nudges SU Esports to 64%. SU’s Game 1 win creates series momentum, but Shark Attack can still alter the result if Hades and Stansfield establish poke control before RAMES can find a clean engage.

FAQ

A: Yes, despite Nako’s 32.3% TCL WR over 31G, Jhin holds a 65.0% global WR into Ziggs over 20G, while Ziggs is only 35.0% into Jhin over 20G.

A: IlllIma has a 100.0% global WR into Mordekaiser over 4G, while Sangrod is 0.0% into Renekton over 4G. That lane can give SU Esports the early pressure needed to snowball objectives.

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*