Dark Passage vs SU Esports: TCL Soraka Draft Test

TL;DR: Dark Passage meet SU Esports in TCL Game 4 with the draft model favoring SU Esports 77% to 23%. BEPLUSH’s Soraka is the pivot: SU Esports have won 67% of 6G against her, while Patch has played Lulu only 1G in TCL, making Dark Passage’s bot-lane gamble decisive.

Soraka gives Dark Passage a deliberate sustain angle rather than a standard front-to-back answer. BEPLUSH and GRRave must survive the early pressure, preserve healing for Aphelios, and force extended objective fights before SU Esports can convert Annie engage and Xin Zhao ganks into a snowball.

Compositions: Dark Passage vs SU Esports

Dark Passage drafted a scaling, defensive teamfight composition: fabFabulous on Rumble supplies zone control, Typhoon’s Kha'Zix hunts isolated targets, LynxCerezz’s Anivia controls corridors, and GRRave’s Aphelios plus BEPLUSH’s Soraka want long fights. Their mid-game objective setup is potent if Anivia wall and Rumble Equalizer prevent Gnar from finding a flank.

SU Esports are more direct. IlllIma’s Gnar, RAMES’s Xin Zhao, and Vetheo’s Annie provide engage, while Nako’s Yunara and Patch’s Lulu offer protected carry damage and scaling. Red side want proactive skirmishes before Soraka can stabilize, then use Lulu shields to let Yunara carry through Rumble and Anivia poke.

Key Picks and Stats

Top lane is volatile. fabFabulous has a 52.3% global WR over 1159G on Rumble but only 44.7% TCL WR over 38G; his 50.0% WR over 2G in TCL comes with a 2.2 KDA. IlllIma’s Gnar carries a 55.0% global WR over 1010G, 54.8% TCL WR over 31G, and a 100.0% WR over 1G with a 2.0 KDA. Rumble’s 52.4% WR over 42G versus Gnar is a small lane edge, despite Gnar’s 47.6% WR over 42G return figure.

Typhoon’s Kha'Zix is risky: 65.4% global WR over 26G becomes 0.0% TCL WR over 1G, although his 85.7% WR over 7G versus Xin Zhao is encouraging. RAMES counters with 48.7% global WR over 1252G, 62.5% TCL WR over 48G, and an 83.3% WR over 6G Xin Zhao record with a 3.6 KDA.

LynxCerezz’s Anivia has 52.2% global WR over 540G and 66.7% TCL WR over 15G, but his own Anivia result is 0.0% over 1G with a 0.5 KDA. Vetheo’s Annie posts 53.5% global WR over 535G, 60.0% TCL WR over 5G, and Annie holds 55.9% WR over 34G against Anivia.

Draft Edge

Dark Passage gain draft upside through Rumble plus Anivia, a 55.78% WR duo over 10.014943220176674G, and Aphelios has a 50.0% WR over 6G versus Yunara in TCL. Yet SU Esports own the cleaner engage and stronger league comfort. Nako’s Yunara has 59.4% TCL WR over 32G, while Patch’s Lulu has 56.0% TCL WR over 25G and a 100.0% WR over 1G with a 13.0 KDA.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket makes SU Esports the overwhelming real-money favorite in Game 4 at 90%, against 10% for Dark Passage. No Series NOW or Series PRE-MATCH percentages were supplied, so movement and a direct Game-versus-Series comparison cannot be quantified.

The market is more bullish than the 77% to 23% draft model, likely pricing SU Esports’ 0.700 team form, 0.714 head-to-head signal, and 0.747 Elo signal. G1’s 30-5 kill win in 23:20 also supports SU’s price; Dark Passage’s G3 win recorded 0-0 kills in 0:10, providing no usable momentum evidence.

Prediction

The model gives SU Esports 77% and Dark Passage 23%. I would move slightly toward SU Esports at 80% to 20% because Polymarket’s 90% signal, RAMES’s TCL Xin Zhao record, and SU’s form outweigh Dark Passage’s scaling ceiling. A disciplined Soraka setup around Aphelios is the clearest path to reversing that call.

FAQ

A: It can, but SU Esports have a 67% win rate over 6G against Soraka, while Patch’s Lulu has a 13.0 KDA across his 1G in TCL.

A: Typhoon has an 85.7% WR over 7G versus Xin Zhao, but his Kha'Zix also has 0.0% TCL WR over 1G, so execution matters more than the matchup sample.

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*