Nongshim vs Dplus LCK CL: Solid’s Lee Sin Gamble

TL;DR: Nongshim Esports Academy face Dplus Kia Challengers in LCK Challengers Game 1, where the draft model favors Dplus 54% to 46%. Solid’s Lee Sin has an 83% LCK Challengers record against Pantheon in 6G, yet he has played only 2G on the champion, making Dplus’s jungle answer a calculated gamble.

Solid is being asked to turn that matchup history into immediate map control rather than simply survive MihawK’s Pantheon. Dplus Kia Challengers are betting that Lee Sin can create enough early ganks and roams before Nongshim Esports Academy’s Ashe-Seraphine back line establishes reliable teamfight control.

Compositions: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Dplus Kia Challengers

Nongshim Esports Academy drafted a front-to-back teamfight shell: Janus on Olaf and MihawK on Pantheon provide engage and skirmish access, while SeTab’s Locke, Lucy’s Ashe, and Pleata’s Seraphine supply poke, pick threat, and scaling utility. Their cleanest route is to use Pantheon pressure to unlock Ashe arrows, then force grouped fights around objectives where Seraphine can protect the carry line.

Dplus Kia Challengers have more volatile engage tools. Jaehyuk’s Ambessa and Solid’s Lee Sin want to break formation, Garden’s Ryze offers scaling and side-lane movement, and Wayne’s Ezreal with Loopy’s Bard can poke before a pick. Red side must snowball the early and mid game; if they cannot find isolated targets, Olaf’s durability and Nongshim’s layered crowd control become harder to penetrate.

Key Picks and Stats

Top lane is playable but not decisive on raw matchup data. Olaf holds a 54.7% global WR over 353G and 51.5% LCK Challengers WR over 33G, while Janus owns an 80.0% WR over 5G with a 3.9 KDA. Against Ambessa, Olaf is 51.7% over 29G globally and 50.0% over 4G in league play. Jaehyuk’s Ambessa is weaker at 47.7% global WR over 1177G, 44.3% over 106G in LCK Challengers, and a 37.5% WR over 8G personally.

Jungle is the decisive contradiction. Pantheon has a 46.2% global WR over 1098G and a troubling 33.7% LCK Challengers WR over 92G; MihawK’s own Pantheon sits at 30.8% over 13G with a 2.0 KDA. His 16.7% WR over 6G versus Lee Sin is a severe warning. Solid’s Lee Sin carries a 60.6% LCK Challengers WR over 66G and an 83.3% WR over 6G against Pantheon, but his personal Lee Sin sample is only 50.0% over 2G with a 0.6 KDA.

Bot lane cuts the other way. Lucy’s Ashe has a 57.1% global WR over 772G, although her league figure is 50.8% over 59G and Ashe is only 25.0% over 8G versus Ezreal in LCK Challengers. Wayne’s Ezreal is 56.3% over 126G in league play, 75.0% over 8G against Ashe, and 81.8% over 11G personally. Pleata’s Seraphine, however, brings a 62.5% WR over 8G and 7.3 KDA, while Loopy’s Bard posts 63.6% over 11G with a 5.1 KDA.

Draft Edge

Nongshim hold the more coherent five-on-five draft, especially through Ashe plus Seraphine and Janus’s exceptional Olaf record. Their win condition is to deny Lee Sin early targets, contest dragons with vision, and let their scaling carries punish Dplus’s engage attempts.

Dplus have the sharper counter-pick angle in jungle and a dangerous Ezreal-Bard lane. Their win condition is for Solid to convert early Pantheon tracking into ganks, then use Bard and Ryze roams to create numbers advantages before Seraphine can stabilize fights.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket’s real-money Game 1 market heavily backs Nongshim Esports Academy 61% to Dplus Kia Challengers 39%, directly opposing the draft model. The Series Now market is 50% to 50%; no Series Pre-Match odds are available, so no movement or change in percentage points can be established.

The Game market is far more optimistic about Nongshim than the overall series market, by 11 percentage points relative to the 50% series baseline. That price likely respects Nongshim’s stronger champion profile, Ashe-Seraphine synergy, and Janus’s 80.0% WR over 5G on Olaf, while discounting the uncertainty around Solid’s 2G Lee Sin sample despite his favorable Pantheon matchup.

Prediction

The model starts at Dplus Kia Challengers 54% to Nongshim Esports Academy 46%. I would modestly shift the practical read toward Nongshim, 51% to 49%, because Polymarket is the strongest external signal and Nongshim’s teamfight execution is more repeatable than a Lee Sin snowball.

Dplus still carry better form at 0.750 versus 0.600, plus stronger Elo at 0.633 versus 0.367. If Solid gains tempo before the first major objectives, the original model lean can return quickly.

FAQ

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*