Nongshim vs DN SOOPers: Qiyana Tests LCK Challengers

TL;DR: Nongshim Esports Academy meet DN SOOPers Challengers in LCK Challengers Game 3, with the draft model narrowly favoring DN SOOPers Challengers 51% to 49%. The most citable draft fact is MihawK's Qiyana carrying a 69.6% LCK Challengers WR over 23G, giving Nongshim a volatile jungle win condition.

Compositions: Nongshim Esports Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers

Nongshim Esports Academy drafted a skirmish-heavy composition around Janus on Yorick, MihawK on Qiyana, SeTab on Locke, Lucy on Kalista, and Pleata on Renata Glasc. Their early game wants Qiyana roams into Kalista-Renata engage windows, while Yorick creates a split-push problem that can pull Jayce away from mid-map fights. If Nongshim snowball, Renata Glasc gives their carries room to play aggressively through Bailout.

DN SOOPers Challengers answer with Lancer on Jayce, DDoiV on Trundle, Flip on Syndra, Enosh on Jhin, and Quantum on Alistar. This is a more conventional poke and engage shell: Jayce and Syndra soften targets, Trundle controls terrain with Pillar, and Alistar starts fights for Jhin follow-up. Their scaling is more reliable in coordinated front-to-back teamfight situations, but they must not concede side-lane pressure to Yorick.

Key Picks and Stats

MihawK's Qiyana is the clearest high-ceiling pick. She has a 55.7% global WR over 237G and a 69.6% LCK Challengers WR over 23G, although her 43.5% WR versus Trundle over 23G warns that DDoiV's counter-gank and Pillar can deny her river angles. DDoiV's Trundle owns a 52.6% global WR over 359G, but his personal 0.0% WR over 2G on the champion is a concerning small-sample signal.

Top lane is a counter-pick debate. Janus's Yorick has a 46.4% global WR over 366G and 45.9% LCK Challengers WR over 37G, yet Yorick holds a 57.1% WR versus Jayce in LCK Challengers over 21G. Janus is 50.0% over 2G on Yorick with a 1.9 KDA. Lancer's Jayce is just 44.0% over 100G in the league and 37.5% over 8G personally, despite Jayce's poke fitting DN SOOPers' plan.

Mid lane favors Flip statistically: Syndra has a 57.7% LCK Challengers WR over 52G and a 100.0% WR versus Locke over 2G. SeTab's Locke is a surprise flex-style selection with a 43.8% league WR over 16G, but SeTab has posted 66.7% over 3G and a 5.8 KDA on it.

Lucy’s Kalista has a 50.0% LCK Challengers WR over 12G, while Pleata's Renata Glasc has a 54.5% WR over 11G and a 100.0% WR over 1G with a 21.0 KDA. Quantum's Alistar brings a 55.8% league WR over 52G, making the bot lane highly execution-dependent.

Draft Edge

DN SOOPers Challengers have the cleaner five-versus-five draft through Syndra, Jhin, and Alistar, plus Trundle’s ability to isolate Qiyana or stop Kalista from resetting. Their model matchup score is 0.518 against Nongshim's 0.482.

Nongshim's edge is sharper rather than broader. Yorick can win through split-push, while Qiyana can punish Jayce and Syndra whenever they lack vision around objectives. The Qiyana-Locke synergy signal of 0.6622 is Nongshim’s strongest internal pairing, so their best route is forcing messy mid-game skirmishes before DN SOOPers can establish poke control.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket prices Game 3 at 50% to 50% and the Series Now market at 50% to 50%. Series pre-match odds are not available, so no market movement can be measured or attributed.

Because Game and Series prices are identical, this is the deciding G3 market structure: Polymarket does not create a separate per-game market and reuses the series moneyline. The dead-even price reflects the draft’s contrast: DN SOOPers have stronger conventional teamfight tools, while Nongshim possess the more explosive Qiyana-Yorick paths and already won G1 26-5 in 26:40.

Prediction

The model gives Nongshim Esports Academy 49% and DN SOOPers Challengers 51%. I would keep that narrow DN SOOPers edge rather than move materially, because their 0.506 duo-synergy score beats Nongshim's 0.466, but G1 momentum and Nongshim's 0.578 season WR make this close.

Nongshim’s 0.400 recent form is the main reason to respect the model's red-side lean. Still, a decisive-map mental reset after a 26-5 loss is difficult, and MihawK’s Qiyana can overturn a controlled draft if DDoiV repeats his low-output Trundle form.

FAQ

A: Yes, but the matchup is risky: MihawK has a 69.6% LCK Challengers WR over 23G on Qiyana, while Qiyana's record versus Trundle is only 43.5% over 23G.

A: The lane data supports it, with Yorick holding a 57.1% WR versus Jayce in LCK Challengers over 21G. However, Janus's 1.9 KDA on Yorick means he must convert side-lane pressure without getting caught.

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*