Nongshim vs DN SOOPers: LCK CL Qiyana Draft Edge

TL;DR: Nongshim Esports Academy meet DN SOOPers Challengers in LCK Challengers Game 1 with the draft model at 52% to 48% for Nongshim. The defining call is MihawK’s Qiyana into Jarvan IV: Nongshim hold a 62% global WR over 55G in that matchup, while MihawK has only 1G on Qiyana in LCK Challengers.

MihawK’s Qiyana is a calculated aggression pick rather than a comfort-lock: Nongshim are betting that their jungle can turn Jarvan IV’s predictable engage routes into river skirmishes and side-lane collapses. For it to pay off, MihawK must establish tempo before DN SOOPers can group Orianna, Lucian, and Milio around clean front-to-back fights.

Compositions: Nongshim Esports Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers

Nongshim Esports Academy drafted a volatile pick-and-skirmish composition. Janus on Camille supplies split-push pressure and flank engage, while MihawK’s Qiyana can punish vision gaps around objectives. SeTab’s Ryze adds scaling and Realm Warp access, and Lucy’s Kalista with Pleata’s Renata Glasc wants early lane control, dive setups, and reset-heavy teamfights.

DN SOOPers Challengers have the more conventional teamfight shell. Lancer’s Olaf wants to run through the first engage, DDoiV’s Jarvan IV provides reliable engage, and Flip’s Orianna can layer Shockwave over Cataclysm. Enosh’s Lucian and Quantum’s Milio need space to poke and carry through the mid game; their composition is strongest when Olaf and Jarvan IV force Nongshim to fight front-to-back.

Key Picks and Stats

Top lane favors Janus’s Camille statistically. Camille holds a 51.0% global WR over 363G and 45.7% LCK Challengers WR over 35G, but her 75.0% global WR over 16G against Olaf and 66.7% LCK Challengers WR over 3G are notable counter-pick signals. Lancer’s Olaf has a 54.5% global WR over 356G and 51.4% LCK Challengers WR over 35G, yet only a 25.0% global WR over 16G versus Camille.

The jungle matchup is the draft’s pressure point. MihawK’s Qiyana posts a 55.7% global WR over 253G, 73.1% LCK Challengers WR over 26G, and a 100.0% WR over 1G with a 5.5 KDA. DDoiV’s Jarvan IV is steadier at a 51.5% global WR over 1436G and 53.1% LCK Challengers WR over 130G, but his 38.2% global WR over 55G and 25.0% LCK Challengers WR over 8G against Qiyana are alarming.

SeTab’s Ryze has a 51.1% global WR over 1441G, while Flip’s Orianna has a 51.4% global WR over 950G. Bot lane is less clear: Lucy’s Kalista owns a 56.2% LCK Challengers WR over 16G and a 100.0% WR over 2G with a 7.0 KDA, but Enosh’s Lucian has an 85.7% WR over 7G with a 5.0 KDA. Pleata’s Renata Glasc adds a 100.0% WR over 3G and 22.5 KDA, against Quantum’s Milio at 83.3% WR over 6G and 5.2 KDA.

Draft Edge

Nongshim receive the narrow draft edge through Camille-Qiyana-Ryze mobility and their superior modeled duo synergy of 0.538 against DN SOOPers’ 0.441. Their win condition is snowballing side lanes before Lucian and Orianna get protected setups.

DN SOOPers can overturn that edge by surviving Qiyana’s first rotations, then using Jarvan IV-Orianna engage to isolate Kalista or Ryze. Their Lucian-Milio lane is a real carry route, but it must avoid Renata Glasc’s bailout and hostile-takeover punishments.

Polymarket Market

Polymarket prices Game 1 at 58% to 42% for Nongshim Esports Academy over DN SOOPers Challengers. The current series market is 60% to 40%, making the market 2 percentage points less optimistic about Nongshim in this individual game than in the series.

No series pre-match price is available, so the direction and size of any series-market move cannot be measured. The Game and Series figures are very close, however, and that confidence fits Nongshim’s Qiyana matchup edge, Camille’s Olaf counter history, and their stronger season WR of 0.564 versus 0.545. DN SOOPers retain credible resistance through better form at 0.600 and Elo at 0.544.

Prediction

The model gives Nongshim Esports Academy 52% and DN SOOPers Challengers 48%. I would move that slightly to 53% to 47% for Nongshim because the Qiyana-versus-Jarvan IV history and Camille-versus-Olaf lane data create concrete early-game routes; DN SOOPers’ stronger form and Elo can still matter if they slow the map down.

FAQ

A: The matchup supports it: MihawK has a 73.1% LCK Challengers WR over 26G on Qiyana, while DDoiV has a 25.0% LCK Challengers WR over 8G against Qiyana.

A: Yes, especially if they reach grouped fights: Enosh has an 85.7% WR over 7G on Lucian and Quantum has an 83.3% WR over 6G on Milio.

*Data: draftlol live draft model + Polymarket, draft close.*